Could Indy Be looking for a Successor?

Article courtesy of Guest Contributor and NFL Draft 101 Writer: Jared Counterman

Peyton Manning and the Colts

The 1998 draft didn't know it at the time, but it would go on to change the NFL for the next decade and a half. General manager, Bill Polian, selected Peyton Manning over future bust Ryan Leaf with the first overall selection. Over the time that has passed since, Manning has won an un-parralled 4 MVP awards and has carried an Indianapolis team to 8 straight 10+ win seasons. Polian has enjoyed the luxury of having a HOF player behind center over his time in Indianapolis, which allowed him to habitually hit his first round picks. The selection of Manning was the beginning of an era of consistency for Polian's organization.

The Reality and Future Strategy

Aaron Rodgers after 2005 NFL Draft

As every football fan knows, you can't have your HOF QB forever. Eventually, he is going to hang up the cleats and at 35 years old, Manning hasn't exactly found the fountain of youth. Recent rumors have been swirling around that Mr. Polian may be interested in following the new found blueprint Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson laid  by drafting Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 NFL draft. Rodgers rode the pine for three seasons, holding a clipboard behind Packer great Brett Favre. In his time on the bench, Rodgers was able to develope a deep relationship with HC Mike McCarthy and the offense he deploys. Only a couple seasons into the experiment, Green Bay has already topped the NFL once and seems poised to make frequent runs at the Lombardi trophy. Professional football has been buzzing. Developing a franchise guy over multiple seasons is a trending way to manage the most important position in pro sports; the quarterback.

This is the section of the article where I'm going to blindly make an attempt at cracking into the mind of draft genius, Bill Polian. Polian has been known to be completely unpredictable in April, but there are some constants in his draft strategy. Always look for Bill to get high character guys, Indianapolis has built a special environment around their facilities and they rarely have to deal with off the feild issues. Media clouding has stayed out of Polian's locker rooms and I expect that to stay that way. 


That puts guys like Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, and Washington's Jake Locker into the conversation. Polian's draft history also hints that production is a very important factor when being ranked among Indy's board. So that keeps all three in the coversation, considering all of them have started three or more seasons. Polian has been a frequenter shopper with Big-10 players, but doesn't mind taking guys from smaller schools. Look at it this way, only he knows, but we can use that history to make stabs at it.

The Contenders: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Jake Locker

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Now that i've got it down to three guys, this process becomes more of a guess. All three guys are going to go through a learning curve, as does every rookie regardless of position, but I'm going to take Dalton off this list for a few reasons. First being I think his upside is the least out of all three guys I've been rambling about and upside is a big element when developing a guy. Secondly I think Polian likes guys that have distinct skill sets (Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Dallas Clark). Dalton, in my opinion, doesn't have any "wow" abilities. 

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Both Kaepernick and Locker bring attributes to the table that aren't seen every day in scouting. The spread that Dalton orchestrated at TCU doesn't translate to the pros at all. With this being said, I'm going to take Dalton out of my speculative running for the Indianapolis throne. Kaepernick is going to need to longest transition time as any QB coming into the NFL in 2011. At Nevada, Colin played in the "pistol" offense, an offense that doesn't deploy any NFL principles. Regardless of the system, Kaepernick is a supreme talent and has a promising career ahead of him. I just don't see Polian shying away from a pro-style guy and going with a wildcard in Kaepernick. 

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Jake Locker, the longtime Huskie hero, is the only guy I'm going to put money on if Polian is convinced its time to grab a student. Over Locker's time in college his stock has been bipolar to say it nicely. In early 2010, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper touted Locker as the "future number one selection in the draft". Locker opted to not compete with Sam Bradford and stay at Washington for his senior season. Only a year later, Locker's draft stock varies from team to team, I've heard third round at best and "a sure fire top-10 talent". With Locker's leadership abilities and loyalty, I think Polian would be crazy not to go with him, once again if this is the true thought process.

Who Knows Really?

Theres' truly only one way to find out what the genius is going to do with his QB situation, and that way is to glue yourself to the television from the 28th-30th of April. This could turn out to be an elaborate peice of trade bait, or what most people have grown to call a "smoke screen". Whatever the situation may be, Bill's got it covered and if your a true Indianapolis Colts fan, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

Jake Locker Scouting Report

Jake Locker, QB, Washington, 6'3, 230 lbs

Size / Arm Strength: 10 – Prototypical size for an NFL QB, Locker has a nice, muscular build. Locker packs a cannon of an arm, the arm strength needed to be an elite NFL quarterback. Strong bodied runner who displays a deceptive strength through contact. Can hit all areas of the field, and Locker can throw the deep post/corner routes with effectiveness.

Accuracy: 7  – Accuracy has been sporadic; great at times, awful others. Locker throws with pinpoint accuracy outside of the pocket, when flushed or on designed rollouts, but the fact remains that he has not been able to consistently throw with accuracy from within the pocket. I feel this is more of a product of the players he is playing around, rather than his inability. At times will miss wide open receivers. When comfortable in the pocket, has great ball placement, keeping the football away from defenders. Able to put the ball in tightly contested windows because of rifle arm and ball placement.

Throwing Mechanics/Footwork: 8 – Locker's throwing motion is mechanically sound. Generally does not overstride on deep throws, gets the ball out with a quick release, and his hips generate a ton of throwing velocity. Hips, athleticism, and release are easily seen when Locker works the short and screen passing game. When he climbs the pocket, he has shown the ability to really drive the football down the middle of the field. 

Windup is quick and efficient, no wasted movement, and Locker rips through the ball. Ball really shoots out of his hand, once again, strong arm and excellent velocity.


Sets and fires quickly and accurately in the short passing game; Hybrid QB that I envision changes the dynamics of the WCO to suit his personal strengths (obviously consisting of short-intermediate and screen game, but also add QB designed runs, and also deep attacking rollout throws).


Footwork within the pocket is inconsistent at best, doesn't always plant and deliver. Jumpy feet in the pocket, and really presses the issue when faced with a pass rush. Footwork outside the pocket on designed rollouts is actually quite impressive, keeping balance and fluidly shifting his hips into position. Best rollout passer heading the 2011 QB draft class.

Mobility/Athleticism: 10 - Very mobile quarterback, Locker has elite speed for any position. A 4.4's 4.5's runner in the 40 yard dash, Locker has the acceleration to reach top speed quickly, and his low center of gravity allows him to avoid and/or break tackles. Extremely fast and explosive, a playmaker whose ability to avoid the rush rivals even the unstoppable Cam Newton, Heisman winner and BCS National Champion. At his best when throwing on the run, moving the pocket, and utilizing his physical attributes. 

Intangibles/Decision-Making: 8 – A 4 year starter, Locker became the face of the Huskies football team; a leader on and off the field, Locker seems to be a great locker room presence. Having spent 2 years under Steve Sarkisian, a well profiled QB coach, Locker has a high football IQ and is devoted inside the film room. He is the hardest worker on his team and a constant competitor, even in defeat.


Decision making is a question mark. Locker forces the issue when faced with pressure, leading to ill advised turnovers. Gets away with some throws that will be picked off in the NFL. Has a really hard time handling long pass reads, doesn't allow routes to develop. Limited field vision.


Has an edge about him; the football savvy/mentality of a Phillip Rivers. Able to fight through adversity/injury, and has the fortitude to put the team on his back.  

Production: 8   – Locker burst onto the scene as a freshman, rushing for 13 TDs and throwing for 14 TDs. However his interceptions outnumbered his TDs, throwing 15 INTs. Locker continually progressed the next few years, lowering his interception rate, increasing his passing touchdowns, and completing a higher percentage of passes. Considered the top candidate for the top overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Locker decided to return to school and finish his career at Washington. A bad decision to say the least, Locker suffered from a weak supporting cast. His touchdowns dropped from 21 his junior season, to 17 this past season, while his interception rate decreased from 11 his junior season, to 9 this past season. 

Best fit: A team with a coaching staff that is great with the development of young quarterbacks, and is committed to his success in the NFL. Buffalo to me is not a good fit at all, seeing how he would have similar receiving options and another porous offensive line. Seattle to me is the best fit, as Pete Carroll has a history in producing QBs at USC. Their style of a West Coast Offense, which attacks a defense with short pass game, quick hitting screens, and rollouts, suits Locker's skill set well. Also the offensive line is developing with potential to be good, and he would have a bevy of young receiving options in TE John Carlson and WRs Mike Williams, Ben Obumanu, and Golden Tate.

X-Factor: Can Jake Locker convince teams that his unique skill set will translate into immediate NFL success? Or will teams see him as a player needing an extended period of development? This alone will determine the draft range of Locker, but even more of a factor is how teams view the other quarterbacks in the draft.

Each of the next top 3 QBs pegged as possible first rounders (Gabbert, Newton, and Mallet), has their own unique problem or cause for concern. Here is a quick synopsis of their weaknesses.

Gabbert to me, has an issue climbing the pocket, keeping his poise in the pocket under pressure, and is unable to consistently extend a broken play. That ability of extending the play is a must in the NFL nowadays. Don't get me wrong, he has mobility and speed, but struggles to extend the play.

Cam Newton has character issues; with the illegal solicitation by his father and also being labeled by some NFL scouts as having a "Me personality". I am a die hard Auburn fan (my father is alumni, and my family lives in Alabama), however I am not ignorant of these very real concerns. This combined with his unpolished footwork inside the pocket, will pose real concerns to NFL organizations.

Ryan Mallett has character concerns that may be blown out of proportion or actually just hidden for the moment. Mallet aside from those issues, has a huge problem when faced with pressure. His big frame is unable to reset his feet and avoid the rush. Also trusts him arm strength too much, throwing into highly contested windows. Reminds me of Jay Cutler in a way.

I do not have the resources or the facts to establish these claims of character concerns, but NFL teams are sure to have done their own investigative work. Thus both Mallett's and Newton's draft stock is going to be determined based on these NFL team's findings. 

I believe Jake Locker's issues to be more easily corrected, and at the same time, feel he is the most talented quarterback in the draft.


Where he will be picked: Late 1st/ Early 2nd Round

Where he should be picked: 1st Round

NFL Comparison: John Elway, Denver Broncos

Extra Notes: On the Elway comparison, I am not trying to just throw Jake Locker into the HOF automatically. By no means do I mean that. Rather I would like to just remark that his innate athleticism, physical strengths, and overall work ethic, make it a distinct possibility that he could become a very good NFL QB. Elway is one in a million...But his NFL career didn't exactly start off smoothly....He worked his craft, devoted himself to success, and overcame a lot of adversity in becoming one of the great QBs of all time. Jake Locker similarly will have a long way to go, in terms of developing into an elite level quarterback.


Here are some interesting facts: 


1) Locker and Elway have similar athletic ability, mobility, and arm strength


Jake Locker runs a reported 4.4 40 yd dash (more than likely a 4.5); John Elway ran a 4.6...


Both were characterized in college as having outstanding arm strength, but inconsistent accuracy. Both players had similar issues with interceptions; Locker- evident in college and Elway- evident in the pro's. "Gunslinger mentality"


2) Both played in the Pac-10, had similar win-loss records, and lack of success in terms of bowl wins.


John Elway played for Stanford, Jake Locker for Washington


John Elway was 20-23 as a starter, and Jake Locker was 15-24; both losing records.


The two combined for only 1 bowl game victory; Jake Locker the only one of the two with even a bowl appearance, let alone a bowl win.


3) John Elway was listed as 6'3, 215 lbs; Jake Locker is currently listed as 6'3, 230 lbs....


Jake Locker Junior season highlights

Jake Locker Senior season highlights

AB's Top Offensive Prospects

Alex Brown’s Top 2011 NFL Draft Prospects: By Offensive Positions

Quarterbacks

Pos. Rank	Name	School	Height	Weight
1	Blaine Gabbert	Missouri	6’5	240 lbs
2	Jake Locker	Washington	6’3	230 lbs
3	Cam Newton	Auburn	6’6	250 lbs
4	Ryan Mallet	Arkansas	6’6	238 lbs
5	C. Kaepernick	Nevada	6’6	230 lbs
6	Greg McElroy	Alabama	6’3	225 lbs
7	Andy Dalton	TCU	6’3	220 lbs
8	Pat Devlin	Delaware	6’3	222 lbs
9	Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	6’4	230 lbs
10	R. Lindley	SDSU	6’4	215 lbs
11	Tyrod Taylor	Va. Tech	6’1	212 lbs
12	N. Enderle	Idaho	6’4	234 lbs
13	T.J. Yates	UNC	6’3	220 lbs
14	M. Mustain	USC	6’2	200 lbs
15	S. Tolzien	Wisconsin	6’2	208 lbs

Running Backs

Pos. Rank	Name	School	Height	Weight
1	M. LeShoure	Illinois	6’0	230 lbs
2	Mark Ingram	Alabama	5’10	215 lbs
3	D. Murray	Oklahoma	6’1	207 lbs
4	J. Rodgers	Oregon St.	5’7	191 lbs
5	Daniel Thomas	Kansas St.	6’2	228 lbs
6	Ryan Williams	Va. Tech	5’10	200 lbs
7	J. Toddman	UConn	5’9	195 lbs
8	K. Hunter	Ok. State	5’8	200 lbs
9	Dion Lewis	Pitt	5’8	195 lbs
10	Shane Vereen	Cal	5’10	205 lbs
11	Stevan Ridley	LSU	6’0	223 lbs
12	Bilal Powell	Louisville	5’11	215 lbs
13	Roy Helu Jr.	Nebraska	6’0	220 lbs
14	Evan Royster	Penn State	6’0	228 lbs
15	Jamie Harper	Clemson	5’11	235 lbs
16	John Clay	Wisconsin	6’1	248 lbs
17	Noel Devine	W. Virginia	5’8	180 lbs
18	Allen Bradford	USC	5’11	235 lbs
19	A. Allen	Georgia Tech	6’0	230 lbs
20	Da’Rel Scott	Maryland	5’11	205 lbs

Wide Receivers

Pos. Rank	Name	School	Height	Weight
1	A.J. Green	Georgia	6’4	212 lbs
2	Julio Jones	Alabama	6’4	220 lbs
3	Torrey Smith	Maryland	6’1	205 lbs
4	J. Jernigan	Troy	5’9	190 lbs
5	L. Hankerson	Miami (fl)	6’3	205 lbs
6	Jon Baldwin	Pitt	6’5	225 lbs
7	Derek Moye	Penn State	6’5	202 lbs
8	Titus Young	Boise State	5’11	180 lbs
9	Juron Criner	Arizona	6’4	210 lbs
10	M. McNutt	Iowa	6’4	215 lbs
11	T. Tolliver	LSU	6’5	203 lbs
12	Austin Pettis	Boise State	6’3	201 lbs
13	V. Brown	SDSU	6’0	195 lbs
14	Jeff Fuller	TAMU	6’4	215 lbs
15	Niles Paul	Nebraska	6’1	220 lbs
16	A. Robinson	SMU	5’10	178 lbs
17	Darvin Adams	Auburn	6’3	185 lbs
18	R. Cobb	Kentucky	5’11	186 lbs
19	J. Maehl	Oregon	6’1	184 lbs
20	D. Johnson	Tulsa	5’8	170 lbs
21	J. Kerley	TCU	5’10	192 lbs
22	R. Johnson	USC	6’0	185 lbs
23	Mark Dell	Mich. State	6’2	199 lbs
24	Greg Salas	Hawaii	6’2	210 lbs
25	M. Maze	Alabama	5’10	182 lbs

Tight Ends

Pos. Rank	Name	School	Height	Weight
1	Kyle Rudolph	Notre Dame	6’6	265 lbs
2	D.J. Williams	Arkansas	6’2	251 lbs
3	Luke Stocker	Tennessee	6’5	253 lbs
4	Michael Egnew	Missouri	6’6	235 lbs
5	Virgil Green	Nevada	6’4	242 lbs
6	L. Kendricks	Wisconsin	6’3	242 lbs
7	Cam Graham	Louisville	6’4	253 lbs
8	Allen Reisner	Iowa	6’2	248 lbs
9	Z. Pianalto	UNC	6’3	250 lbs
10	W. Saunders	S. Carolina	6’5	272 lbs

Offensive Tackles

Pos. Rank	Name	School	Height	Weight
1	Derek Sherrod	Mississippi St.	6’6	306 lbs
2	Gabe Carimi	Wisconsin	6’7	327 lbs
3	Nate Solder	Colorado	6’9	315 lbs
4	Tyron Smith	USC	6’5	280 lbs
5	A. Castonzo	Boston College	6’7	300 lbs
6	M. Cannon	TCU	6’6	350 lbs
7	D. Love	Arkansas	6’5	315 lbs
8	James Brewer	Indiana	6’6	332 lbs
9	D. Watkins	Baylor	6’4	310 lbs
10	Ben Ijalana	Villanova	6’4	320 lbs
11	Jason Pinkston	Pitt	6’4	308 lbs
12	Matt Reynolds	BYU	6’6	322 lbs
13	J. Barksdale	LSU	6’5	318 lbs
14	Jah Reid	UCF	6’7	324 lbs
15	Marcus Gilbert	Florida	6’5	320 lbs

Offensive Guards/Centers

Pos. Rank	Name	School	Height	Weight
1	Mike Pouncey	Florida	6’4	310 lbs
2	S. Wisniewski	Penn State	6’3	306 lbs
3	R. Hudson	Florida State	6’2	282 lbs
4	M. Cannon	TCU	6’6	350 lbs
5	Ben Ijalana	Villanova	6’4	320 lbs
6	Clint Boling	Georgia	6’5	304 lbs
7	Lee Ziemba	Auburn	6’6	320 lbs
8	John Moffit	Wisconsin	6’4	323 lbs
9	O. Franklin	Miami (fl)	6’7	315 lbs
10	Ricky Henry	Nebraska	6’3	305 lbs