Top 20 Fantasy Runningbacks for 2010

1.              Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee – After the season Chris had last year, this one is tough to argue.  The only cause for concern would be the amount of touches he got a year ago, 358 carries and 50 catches, but he should have had plenty of time to recover.  After setting the NFL single season mark for yards from scrimmage (every fantasy owners’ dream) with 2,006 yards rushing and 503 yards receiving, CJ’s goal is this year for the single season rushing mark.  Oh, did I mention he scored 16 touchdowns in 2009?  The Titans lost TE Alge Crumpler and C Kevin Mawae, which may hinder CJ’s productivity just a bit. 

2010 Prediction:  320 carries, 1800 yards, 16 touchdowns, 45 catches, 500 yards and 3 touchdowns

2.            Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota – Another pick that is hard to argue, unless you are making the case for AP at spot #1.  The big question right now is whether Brett Favre will be back (he will) because it could play a role in AP’s number of carries.  Peterson’s downfall is the fumble, as he has coughed up the ball 20 times in his three years.  That said, he has scored more than 10 touchdowns (18 in 2009) and rushed for over 1,300 yards each of the last three years.  And in 2009, he doubled his career high reception total with 43 for 436 yards.  My prediction will change if Favre does not return
            2010 Prediction: 315 carries, 1,650 yards, 15 touchdowns, 30 catches, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns
3.            Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville – MJD has been the heart and soul of Jaguars, playing much bigger than his 5’7” frame.  As long as the Jaguars have a lackluster passing attack expect MJD to carry their offense and rack up a good number of touchdowns.  He has also caught at least 40 balls in all four seasons that he has played.
            2010 Prediction: 325 carries, 1,500 yards, 13 touchdowns, 45 catches, 600 yards 1 touchdown
4.            Frank Gore, RB San Francisco– The only concerns here with Frank Gore are his number of carries and injuries.  However, if he is healthy he can carry the ball 275+ times with great success.  QB Alex Smith has yet to blossom, and the 49ers will look to Gore to carry them through the weak NFC West this year. 
            2010 Prediction: 275 carries, 1,350 yards, 11 touchdowns, 50 catches, 450 yards, 2 touchdowns
5.           Michael Turner, RB Atlanta – Michael Turner is coming back from an injury a year ago, but still managed to rush for 871 yards and 10 touchdowns while appearing in only 11 games.  In 2008 Turner rushed for 17 touchdowns, and at 244 pounds there is no reason his touchdown total should be less than that, especially as the Falcons offense continues to improve.
            2010 Prediction: 270 carries, 1,250 yards, 17 touchdowns, 4 catches, 35 yards, 0 touchdowns
6.            Ray Rice, RB Baltimore – The trade for Anquan Boldin will greatly help the Ravens but hurt Ray Rice’s fantasy productivity.  Look for the Ravens to become a more balanced offense this year, but Ray Rice will still be very productive and very involved.
            2010 Prediction:  260 carries, 1,250 yards, 10 touchdowns, 60 catches, 600 yards 2 touchdowns
7.           Rashard Mendenhall, RB Pittsburgh – Mendenhall became a huge factor in the Steelers’ offense a year ago, starting 12 games in his 2^nd season.  He rushed for 1,108 yards and seven touchdowns.  Rashard will be the feature back this season, and with Roethlisberger suspended for 4-6 weeks the Steelers will look to Mendenhall early and often.  His touchdown numbers depend on the use of Jonathan Dixon as a goal line back.
            2010 Prediction: 280 carries, 1,300 yards, 12 touchdowns, 18 catches, 200 yards, 1 touchdown
8.            Ryan Grant, RB Green Bay – Yes, Aaron Rodgers is going to rack up yards passing, but the truth is Green Bay has a great offense and Ryan Grant is going to get a high majority of the carries.  Last year he ran for over 1,200 yards which he will be near again this year with a more experienced offensive line.
            2010 Prediction: 270 carries, 1,200 yards, 13 touchdowns, 20 catches, 180 yards, 1 touchdown
9.             Steven Jackson, RB St. Louis – Steven Jackson will continue to be a bright spot for the 1-15 Rams in 2010, carrying them to any success that they have.  Any running back that can carry the ball 324 times is worth a shot in fantasy, although his touchdown numbers have been low because the Rams are rarely in the redzone.

2010 Prediction: 325 carries, 1,350 yards, 8 touchdowns, 50 catches, 450 yards 2 touchdowns

10.            Ryan Matthews, RB San Diego –Normally I would not like to include a rookie in the top 10, but something has me really liking Matthews this season.  He has worked with the first team since his first day of practice and will get the majority of the carries for the Chargers.  They will likely be without WR Vincent Jackson due to a holdout, so look for a good number of carries for the rookie.  Darren Sproles will get the bulk of the pass-catching duties from the backfield.  
            2010 Prediction:  280 carries, 1,250 yards, 11 touchdowns, 7 catches, 100 yards, 0 touchdowns

The Best of the Rest:
11.  Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City
12.  Deangelo Williams, RB Carolina
13.  Beanie Wells, RB Arizona
14.  Jonathan Stewart, RB Carolina
15.  Shonn Greene, RB NY Jets
16.  Cedric Benson, RB Cincinati
17.  Jahvid Best, RB Detroit
18.  Matt Forte, RB Chicago
19.  LeSean McCoy, RB Philadelphia
20.  Knowshon Moreno, RB Denver

Safest Pick: Adrian Peterson
Biggest Risk/Reward: Brandon Jacobs
Rookie Most Likely to Make an Impact: Ryan Matthews

Top Rookie RBs to Target in 2010

With the offensive scheming in the NFL quickly transitioning to more of a "spread" look, and teams incorporating the idea of "running back by committee", fantasy football drafters only have four to five running backs who are "workhorse" backs any longer.

These four to five; Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Michael Turner/Frank Gore still have multiple question around all of them.

Adrian Peterson- fumbling problems and can he stay healthy like last season?

Chris Johnson- will the 358 carries take their toll on him in 2010?

Ray Rice- will Anquan Boldin's addition take away touches from him?

Maurice Jones-Drew- can he contiinue producing with a team that has absolutely no other weapons besides him?

Michael Turner- only played in basically 10 games last season, and

Frank Gore has one full healthy season in over his last 5 seasons?

All this to say that there is major uncertainty in the world of football and it is important to know that for the first time in many years, I believe there will be some serious production coming from the 2010 RB rookie draft class. Many of these running backs have already been named starters, and all except Ryan Matthews can be drafted with amazing value.

Late in drafts it will be wise to take a healthy dose of proven veterans, such as a Hines Ward- caught 90 passes again last season, but also take a chance on an explosive rookie, like Matt Forte in 2008 where he exploded onto the scene after being named the starter early in the summer. Nevertheless, strategy aside, here are some rookie running backs who will likely put up serviceable fantasy numbers in 2010.

1. Ryan Matthews: RB, San Diego Chargers

Norv Turner is quoted this offseason along the lines of saying he expects to hand the rock to LT's apparent heir, Ryan Matthews at least 300 times this 2010 season. It has been crystal clear that this offseason's agenda was to re-establish the rushing attack. A running back who has a similar skill set to that of Michael Turner, Matthews will be the new mustang which the Chargers will ride in 2010. The Chargers would not have traded up from pick 28 to pick 12 in the NFL Draft unless they saw him as their immediate starter and RB of the future. Don't expect him to catch many passes out of the backfield, however Matthews will likely share the bulk of the team's red-zone touchdowns with perennial Pro-Bowl TE Antonio Gates. It should not surprise you fantasy football fans when I say Matthews was worthy of a second round pick. The only other year in which I advocated an early draft selection to a rookie running back was when Matt Forte came into the league as the Bears lead back two years ago; sadly Forte was taken two picks before me by an owner who could not even pronounce Forte's last name...The NCAA rushing leader in 2009 is going to be heavily involved in the Chargers offense, who will be without their best vertical threat for the first 10 weeks.

Projection: 314 Rushes, 1315 Yards, 8 TDs, 15 Receptions, 230 Yards

Marginal RB1 or Solid RB2

2. Jahvid Best: RB, Detroit Lions

The Lions have been raving about this kid all offseason; the explosiveness, the top line speed, and agility are all impressive. If he is used efficiently in this coming 2010 season, we could see a star in the making. Some people note his size as a problem for him becoming a future lead back in the NFL, yet I think his size is absolutely perfect. At 5'10 200lbs he can hide behind blockers and use his explosiveness to hit the right holes. With Kevin Smith still recovering from a torn ACL, look for Best to be the best RB in the Detroit Lions backfield. This guy is a pure playmaker who will be a regular in "Sportcenter's Top Ten Plays of the Week."

Projection: 203 Rushes, 1009 Yards, 4 TDs, 34 Receptions, 420 Yards, 2 TDs

RB2 to Solid Flex option

3. C.J. Spiller: RB, Buffalo Bills

Another explosive runner, Spiller joins a very crowded backfield in Buffalo with healthy running backs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. In this particular scene I would rate the running backs on this team as such;

1. Fred Jackson

2. C.J. Spiller

3. Marshawn Lynch

Fred Jackson is the most complete back with ability running and catching the ball better than most; Spiller has the most potential, and I consider Lynch un-draftable due to his apparent lack of commitment and off-field issues. Yet Spiller is an extraordinary talent who no doubt can create running lanes for himself. Spiller is high risk/high reward, and although I feel he can outproduce all other rookie backs if he plays to his potential, I feel he will be drafted higher than he should be. Treat him as a low end RB2 or Flex player.

Projection: 185 Rushes, 834 Yards, 2 TDs, 35 Receptions, 210 Yards, 3 TDs

Marginal RB2 to Flex option

4. Ben Tate: RB, Houston Texans

Ben Tate is a big, strong, downhill running back, but not the most explosive running back.  However, he has great vision for a young ball carrier and played in a similar offense as the Texans at Auburn University. In a jumbled backfield, it seems that Tate will have a tough time getting enough touches to be an impact this season. However lets look at these sizes shall we?

Player A: 5'9 199lbs

Player B: 5'11 220lbs

Player A is Steve Slaton; productive in his rookie season, yet a non-factor last season. If Slaton's spinal injury is fully healed as he says, Tate will lose playing time considerably. Slaton is a better pass catcher than Tate is, and this offense is predicated upon the pass. However, Tate could be the workhorse back the Texans need. With a strong build at 220lbs, he can take 20 carries a game and can provide balance to a pass heavy offense that always seems behind in football games. If Tate can solidify a starting job through the pre-season, look for him to produce like Ryan Grant in Green Bay; around 250 carries, solid yardage, and a couple of touchdowns.

Projection: 225 Rushes, 918 Yards, 5 TDs, 10 Receptions, 103 Yards

Low-end RB2 to Flex option

5. Montario Hardesty: RB, Cleveland Browns

Hardesty would be much higher in my rankings, but he recently injured his knee. Hardesty was drafted by the Browns with the notion that he had fully recovered from his college knee injuries (yes, plural) to step in as the Browns lead back. This setback pushes Montario down draft boards and he could be a pleasant surprise if he makes a smooth recovery. As a mid round flyer, Hardesty can provide a team with some quality production in an offense that likely will switch to a West Coast Offensive system. Holmgren has brought in three accurate, short game passers who can move well in and out of the pocket (Delhomme, Wallace, and McCoy) and it seems very clear that they will implement a RBBC with the tandem of Harrison and Hardesty. Harrison will be the hot commodity come draft day, while Hardesty could possibly be a steal pick late in the draft. Look for him to play consistently well when he comes back from the knee injury, and also look for Hardesty to vulture most of the goal-line touchdowns away from smaller back Harrison.

Projections: 182 Rushes, 712 Yards, 8 TDs, 8 Receptions, 55 Yards

Flex Option to RB3

6. LeGarrette Blount: RB, Tennessee Titans

You guys are probably saying, "Titans? That's Chris Johnson's gig all the way man!" However Blount, who is most remembered for his Boise State sucker punch early last season, has impressed everyone in Titans camp with his hard work and improved character. At a massive 6'2 240, Blount looks like a more talented and polished LenDale White. If he can maintain the backup role under Chris Johnson, Blount could see some fill-in starts and will likely be the primary goal-line back. Look for a big touchdown total, but limited rushes and yardage.

Projections: 160 Rushes, 650 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 Receptions, 30 Yards
Handcuff RB or RB3 to RB4

Other Rookie RBs

Anthony Dixon- Apparently is having difficulties with grasping the offensive scheme and offensive coordinator has even said to reporters that he sometimes feels like "strangling" him.

Jonathan Dwyer- Has come to camp overweight, and aggravated his hamstring in his first practice. Rashard Mendenhall is the guy in Pittsburgh, don't read too much into Dwyer.

Joe Mcknight- Has potential to produce like Leon Washington did two years ago, yet LT2 is on the way. Limited touches will keep his production too low for fantasy consideration.

Top 20 Fantasy Quarterbacks for 2010

1.              Peyton Manning, QB Indianapolis – It would be very difficult to pass on a player of Manning’s caliber, especially one who is so consistent.  Manning, the 2009 NFL MVP, has WR Anthony Gonzalez coming back from injury which should help his numbers.  If you are looking for a quarterback at the top of your draft you certainly know what you will get from Peyton Manning, and he is coming off a year in which he completed a career best 68.8% of his passes.  He has the luxury of great pass protection (10 sacks in 09) which definitely help his consistency.

2010 Prediction:  65.5% completions, 4,200 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions

2.            Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay – I feel that Green Bay is probably the most underrated team fantasy-wise.  Aaron Rodgers threw for over 4,400 yards last year, with 30 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions…all in just his second year as a starter and he will likely get better this year.  The only reasons he is behind Manning are his offensive line and the uncertainty…can he consistently perform at that level and improve?  The answer is probably. He is surrounded by weapons such as Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley.

            2010 Prediction: 65% completions, 4,600 yards, 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions

3.            Drew Brees, QB New Orleans – Super Bowl hangover for the Saints?  All indications are that they are as motivated as ever and looking to repeat.  Drew Brees is coming off a year featuring a ridiculous 70.6% completion percentage with 34 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.  His offense features standouts such as Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, all important factors in the passing game.

            2010 Prediction: 67% completions, 4,400 yards, 33 touchdowns and 13 interceptions

4.            Tom Brady, QB New England – Sure, Wes Welker is coming off knee and shoulder surgery and Moss is aging, but this is Tom Brady we’re talking about.  He makes everyone around him better, and the addition of WR Torry Holt as a potential third WR could be big.  Look for rookie TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to have a big impact in the passing game, with Aaron Hernandez both a draft sleeper and fantasy sleeper.  The lack of a running game could again be an issue, but Brady and Bill Belichick have gotten around that before.

            2010 Prediction: 64.5% completions, 4,300 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions

5.            Matt Schaub, QB Houston – In 2009 Schaub threw for 270 more yards than any other quarterback.  Schaub could be higher on the list if he had more consistent playmakers surrounding him (obviously besides Andre Johnson).  Schaub also attempted and completed the most passes in the NFL, a plus for fantasy owners.  Schaub also has had injury problems in the past, has a bunch of potential for this season but needs his surrounding cast to play consistently.  The weak rushing attack may also be an issue as teams will key on the pass. 

            2010 Prediction: 65% completions, 4,500 yards, 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions (IF he plays in all 16 games)

6.            Tony Romo, QB Dallas – I think Romo could have a big year with the addition of WR Dez Bryant, but Dez Bryant’s high ankle sprain worries me a bit.  With the lack of production from “former #1” WR Roy Williams and uncertainty of whether Miles Austin isn’t just a one-hit wonder, Romo fell a bit in my book.  The Cowboys have some question marks on the offensive line with the release of Flozell Adams and a few players returning from injury, but Jason Witten is always reliable. 

            2010 Prediction: 62.5% completions, 4,100 yards, 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions

7.            Philip Rivers, QB San Diego – This one is a wild card.  Right now the Chargers are missing their star WR and LT, Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill, are holding out and may continue to hold out until week 10 (when they must play in order to accrue a season).  The drafting of RB Ryan Matthews will help to balance the offense, but also may take some throws away from Rivers, and Malcom Floyd must show the ability to become a #1 WR in place of Vincent Jackson.  If Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill end their holdouts Rivers will have a much better year.  The Chargers are also tied for third for the easiest schedule in the league.

            2010 Prediction: 63% completions, 3,900 yards, 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions

8.            Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore – Flacco improved his completion percentage, yards and touchdowns from year one while keeping his interceptions constant.  Now add Anquan Boldin to the mix who had 84 catches and over 1,000 yards splitting catches with Larry Fitzgerald.  Sure, Baltimore is a run first offense, but with Flacco having two years under his belt, the re-signing of Derrick Mason, the addition of Boldin and the pass catching ability of RB Ray Rice Flacco should have a career year.

2010 Prediction: 64% completions, 3,800 yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions

9.            Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta – Matt Ryan enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign followed by a more average sophomore season.  However, the return of Michael Turner from injury will take a lot of pressure off of Ryan, and allow him to not feel like he has to make every play.  He has some great targets to throw to including future hall of famer Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White.  I expect his interceptions to drop from 14 and his completion percentage to increase considerably.

            2010 Prediction: 62% completions, 3,600 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions

10.            Kevin Kolb, QB Philadelphia – This is a pick obviously made based solely on potential and the talent around him.  LeSean McCoy is proving to be a stud RB, while DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have incredible explosion, and can turn any ball into a touchdown in Andy Reid’s West Coast Offense.  Kevin Kolb is built for success in a west coast system.  

            2010 Prediction:  64% completions, 3,600 yards, 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions

The Best of the Rest:
11.  Donovan McNabb, QB Washington
12.  Carson Palmer, QB Cincinati
13.  Jay Cutler, QB Chicago
14.  Eli Manning, QB NY Giants
15.  Chad Henne, QB Miami
16.  Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh
17.  Matt Stafford, QB Detroit
18.  Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle
19.  Matt Leinart, QB Arizona
20.  Matt Cassell, QB Kansas City


Safest Pick: Peyton Manning
Biggest Risk/Reward: Kevin Kolb 

Rookie Most Likely to Make an Impact: Sam Bradford, QB St. Louis

Biggest Potential for Improvement from 2009:  Carson Palmer, QB Cincinnati