Retrospective Look: Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton Trade

Here is a piece I wrote in the middle of the 2010 summer for my SMWW Football GM and Scouting Course. I review the trade of Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton, the context of the trade, and future possibilities.

Enjoy...

Denver Broncos give Chicago Bears Jay Cutler, and 2009 5^th round draft pick 

In return

Chicago Bears give Denver Broncos Kyle Orton, 2009 and 2010 1^st round draft picks, and 2009 3^rd round draft pick.

After a very successful season as offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots in 2008, with fill-in QB Matt Cassel at the helm, Josh McDaniels gained national attention for his abilities as a coach. During the offseason the Denver Broncos surprisingly fired their longtime coach Mike Shanahan, and hired the young Josh McDaniels from the Patriots organization. In an effort to implement the same offense he ran at New England with Tom Brady and Matt Cassel, McDaniels needed to go out and acquire a very smart QB to run his offense. With Matt Cassel on the trade block in New England, McDaniels sought to attain Cassel due to his familiarity in previous years running the very same offense. Being the complex and intricate offensive scheme it is with multiple sets and packages, McDaniels knew that the top priority would come from a management standpoint at the quarterback position, and what better way to address this need than to get someone who already knows the offense? McDaniels however failed to make this acquisition, and immediately afterwards had to deal with a disgruntled Jay Cutler who had heard of the attempted trade. Josh McDaniels understood Cutler’s extreme talent, yet felt as if the Broncos could use a different skill set from the quarterback position. With Cutler on the move, the Broncos could now get the smart quarterback they wanted in Kyle Orton, while also adding two 1^st round draft picks (2009 & 2010) and a 3^rd rounder (2010).

On the flipside, the Bears desperately needed a franchise quarterback whom they could build their team around in the coming years. Due to Rex Grossman’s lack of productivity following the team’s Super Bowl loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the Bears front office decided it was time to make a move on Jay Cutler. By holding numerous draft picks, the Bears were able to acquire their franchise QB in Cutler. Bears GM Jerry Angelo’s area scout in Nashville had developed what Angelo described as a “great rapport” with Cutler. So obviously the Bears liked what they saw from Cutler early on.  Jerry Angelo went on to say of the situation, “We felt that [Cutler] is a very good person, a good leader, he had some things that happened in Denver. We recognized those, but we treated them as just speed bumps, part of the growing process. He's highly competitive, he's highly emotional. That just comes with the territory. “ The Bears got the QB they sought out by giving up a lot of draft picks and their own starting QB Kyle Orton. This trade provides extreme potential and talent to a team who has lacked in those areas at the quarterback position for the last three decades.

In retrospect a year later, I believe that both organizations have benefited from the trade. Kyle Orton has proven himself a capable leader and ran the McDaniels system very well in the 2009 NFL season; also the draft picks allowed the Broncos to upgrade the pieces around Orton. With 4 1^st rounder’s in the past two drafts, the Broncos have acquired Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers, Demaryius Thomas, and Tim Tebow. All in all a very smart trade for the Broncos.

For the Bears, Season 1 of the Jay Cutler Show revealed that the team has some glaring holes and weaknesses to fill. First off Cutler needs to be groomed into making smarter decisions with the football and avoid stupid mistakes; too many forced passes that led to interceptions. Secondly, the Bears need to upgrade Cutler’s weapons in the passing game from a Wide Receiver standpoint. With the cannon that Cutler has attached to his arm, he needs a deep threat badly;  Devin Hester was the team’s leading WR receiver with a mere 757 yards and only 3 TDs. One bright spot is the TE spot which is occupied by Greg Olsen; Olsen churned out 8 TDs on 60 catches and 612 yards. A healthy Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashadu look to make more of an impact as well in 2010. Nevertheless, Jerry Angelo made a brilliant move this offseason of 2010 in bringing in offensive mastermind Mike Martz. Martz hopefully can control the testy Cutler and mold him into an elite level QB for the Chicago Bears. 

It will be interesting to see how all this will pan out in the coming season, and I want to know what you guys thought about this trade? Winner? Loser? Or good for both teams? In my opinion both organizations accomplished what they were trying to do and got the players they wanted. If Mike Martz can turn a grocer stocker named Kurt Warner into a Hall-of-Famer, and an undrafted free agent named Marc Bulger into a Pro-Bowler, it will be special to see what he can do with a blue chip prospect like Jay Cutler. This will be the most talented QB he has dealt with and I bet that Cutler will perform very well this season. 

Now let's look at what happened... 

Jay Cutler in 2010, threw his least pass attempts since his 2nd half rookie season in Denver. This was possible due to the improved running attack of Matt Forte, who rushed for over a thousand yards for the 2nd time in his 3 year NFL career. Cutler dropped his interceptions from 26 down to 16, and still kept his passing TDs above 20 (23 in 2010).  Chicago finished the season 11-5 and earned the #2 seed in the NFC. The work that Lovie Smith has done as head coach, bringing in d-coordinator Rod Marinelli and o-coordinator Mike Martz, ought to be commended. The defense now is one of the most feared in the NFL, and Martz has made incredible strides in the growth of young quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler is making less mistakes, and is learning how to efficiently attack defenses. 

Josh McDaniels had a disastrous 2010 season, filled with losses and off-field distractions, culminating in his mid season termination. The Broncos finished the season 4-12, John Elway essentially became the head of the franchise, and most recently John Fox former HC of the Carolina Panthers, was named head coach of the Denver Broncos.

Kyle Orton turned in his most productive season to date; in only 13 games he threw for 20 TDs and only gave up 9 interceptions. Although he was among the NFL leaders all season long in passing categories, a late season injury led to 3 Tim Tebow starts. An apparent change at the helm is in order for the young franchise; John Elway seems likely to stick with Tebow in 2011 as his QB, and Kyle Orton will be looking for employment elsewhere. Orton is a draft day trade possibility at this point, and there could be a long calling list for Orton's talents as he proved himself to be a more than capable quarterback in 2010.

MNF: Broncos Perspective

Players to Watch

QB Kyle Orton - Despite having the worst rushing attack in the NFL, Orton has put up MVP type stats, passing for 2,806 yards,16 TDs and only 5 interceptions. Orton will have to find a way to exploit the stingy Chargers defense which ranks first in the NFL.

WR Brandon Lloyd - Lloyd is probably the surprise player of the year. The former fourth rounder out of Illinois is in his 8th year in the league and on his fourth different team. Pretty much everyone wrote Lloyd off because he has done virtually nothing in the last 3 years, only starting 7 games. This year he already has 48 receptions for 968 yards and 6 touchdowns, all career highs and he has only started 7 games. Lets see if Lloyd can show off in front of a national audience.

LB D.J. Williams - Williams, who is the Broncos top linebacker, was benched last game after getting arrested for a DUI. He should be in the starting lineup tonight and we will see if he tries to rectify his off the field mistakes and has a big game. Williams has 74 tackles, 3.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and 4 pass deflections on the season.

Key Matchup: San Diego's rushing attack vs. Broncos run defense - The Broncos are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run but the Chargers have had some struggles running the ball themselves. If the Broncos can get the better of this match-up then they can focus on stopping QB Phillip Rivers. I think they have a good chance at beating Rivers tonight because of veterans like S Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey. Bailey is still one of the best corners in the NFL but seems to be forgotten because of the emergence of CB Darrelle Revis and other young corners.

Why the Broncos Will Win- The Chargers wont be ready for the Broncos passing attack. The Chargers really have not faced a balanced passing attack like the Broncos possess this year. I think the Broncos are going to go out and not even attempt to run against the Chargers; they are going to go out and spread the Chargers defense out and try to attack them through the air. If you look at the Chargers schedule this year, they have played some pretty mediocre teams (other than the Patriots). Everyone is forgetting that the Chargers are a 4-5 team this year and they have not even gotten to the hardest part of their schedule. I think the Broncos are a very underrated team and have a good chance of pulling off an upset against the Chargers, who have found ways to lose games all year.

Prediction: Broncos 31 Chargers 28

Video of the Day

QB Troy Smith is set to start against the Broncos in London this Sunday. I really like this move. I was a big fan of Smith coming out of college, and he was slotted to start in Baltimore a couple of years ago, but got he injured and Flacco took over and he never got a chance after that. Smith is finally getting a chance to shine, and I think he will do a great job utilizing all the talent on the 49ers roster, and finish off the year as the 49ers starter.

Denver Broncos 2010 Preview and Prediction

Last Years Record            8-8

Wins: Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers, Giants, Chiefs

Losses: Ravens, Steelers, Redskins, Chargers, Colts, Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs

Biggest Playmaker            Champ Bailey

CB, Georgia, Drafted #7, 12^th Year

Champ Bailey is a nine-time pro bowler and was chosen to the 2000s All-Decade Team.  Bailey has been consistent throughout his whole career recording 46 interceptions including three in his 2009 pro bowl campaign.  Considered one of the leaders of the Broncos’ team and defense he will have to prove that his age is not slowing him down and that he is still a top-3 corner in the league, which is how he is being paid.   

Impact Player            Brian Dawkins

Safety, Clemson, Drafted #61, 15^th Year

Brian Dawkins is an incredibly fun player to watch, known both for his hard hitting and tenacious play (and also his “double personality”).  He can completely turn the pace and momentum of a game with one hit, and he is absolutely a leader of the Broncos.  Click the link, you will see why he is an impact player.

Biggest Offseason Addition            Jamal Williams

NT, Oklahoma State, 2^nd Round (Supplemental Draft), 13^th Year

Jamal Williams will provide a big, dominating presence on the defensive line that was missing a year ago.  At roughly 350 pounds, Williams, a three-time pro bowler with the Chargers, can stuff the middle in the Broncos’ 3-4 defense and open holes for their inside backers.  Denver was ranked 26^th against the run last year and the addition of Williams will certainly help.

Biggest Offseason Loss            Brandon Marshall

WR, Central Florida, Drafted #119, 5^th Year

Brandon Marshall is without question a huge loss for the Broncos.  He made the pro bowl each of the past two seasons, during which he caught 205 balls for 2,385 yards and 16 touchdowns.  (He caught 102 balls for 1,325 yard and seven touchdowns in 2007.)  Not only is Marshall a tough player to lose because of his talent but also because of the lack of proven talent the Broncos are left with at wide receiver. 

Biggest Draft Steal            J.D. Walton

Center, Baylor, Drafted #80, Rookie

The Broncos were able to draft an immediate starter in the third round by drafting J.D. Walton.  Walton is a mean player and team leader who finishes his blocks, and to grab a first day starter in the middle of the third round is a great pickup.  It will be interesting to see how he can command the Broncos’ offensive line as a rookie, likely starting next to second-round pick Zane Beadles.

Biggest Draft Mistake            Tim Tebow

QB, Florida, Drafted #25, Rookie

Tebow is very possibly the most talked about prospect of the last ten years, and not because of his NFL talents.  Tebow comes out of Florida’s spread-option attack where he was essentially a passing running back.  He did put up great numbers, but his mechanics are not NFL-ready.  Tebow deserves credit for his work ethic and his passion for the game, but he very likely could have been picked up later on, and in the first round teams should not be interested in “projects.”  The first round is where you find players to build your franchise around, not players to build special short-yardage packages for.               

Offseason Grade            B-

I am not a fan of either of the Broncos first two draft picks, WR Demaryius Thomas from Georgia Tech or QB Tim Tebow.  Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow are both NFL projects…not to mention that Dez Bryant was on the board when Thomas was picked (and Dez Bryant is going to be a stud).  The Broncos also lost pro bowl WR Brandon Marshall and received just a second round pick in return (and a conditional 2011 second-rounder).  They did well in drafting Beadles and Walton who are listed as starters thus far in training camp to bolster their offensive line, and adding Jamal Williams is a plus.  The fact that they drafted two projects in the first round hurts their grade here and also puts a lot of pressure on head coach Josh McDaniels. 

X-Factor            Pass rush

The NFL’s 2009 sack leader, Elvis Dumervil, tore his pectoral muscle in training camp and will likely be out for the season.  Dumervil accounted for 43.5% of the teams’ sacks a year ago.  In his presence the Broncos’ will look to Jarvis Moss (when he returns from injury) and Robert Ayers, who have 3.5 sacks combined in their careers.    Even with Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins in the secondary, without a consistent pass rush receivers will be open eventually.  If Moss and Ayers can step in and provide even half of the production of Dumervil the Broncos can have a decent defense. 

Name You Should Know            D.J. Williams

ILB, Miami (Fla), Drafted #17, 7^th Year

D.J. Williams was chosen as a pro bowl alternate a year ago after making 122 tackles, 3.5 sacks and forcing 3 fumbles.  With the addition of NT Jamal Williams in front of him D.J. Williams will have an even bigger season.  

Rising Star            Ryan Clady

LT, Boise State, Drafted #12, 3^rd Year

Ryan Clady has started all 32 games of his career and is already considered a top 3 left tackle by essentially every NFL expert.  Clady is an excellent athlete and his leadership will be crucial with two rookies starting to his right.

Offensive Outlook            C

Kyle Orton can have a big impact on the success of this offensive unit.  During their six game win streak to open the 2009 season Orton threw 9 touchdowns to just one interception, but went the last 10 games with a mediocre 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  Orton will likely be playing with two new, young offensive linemen, without Brandon Marshall and with a backfield that has been touched by injuries in training camp (Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter).

Defensive Outlook            B-

The loss of Elvis Dumervil was a huge blow for the Broncos’ defense and they really need Jarvis Moss and Robert Ayers to break out and provide a pass rush for them.  They do have a solid core of veterans in Dawkins, Bailey and Jamal Williams who will likely lead a mediocre defense this year.   

Special Teams Outlook            B+

The Broncos have a very solid kicker in Matt Prater who hit on 85.7% of his field goals and tied for second in the NFL in touchbacks (28).  Punter Britton Colquitt is untested as his did not appear in a game in 2009.  Eddie Royal will likely handle most of the kick and punt return duties after returning a punt and kickoff for a touchdown in 2009 with a very healthy 11.2 yards per punt return.

Projected 2010 Record            6-10

The loss of Elvis Dumervil is going to have a bigger impact than people imagine.  The trade of Brandon Marshall, the inexperience on the offensive line and injury problems early at running back will definitely hinder the Broncos’ rebuilding attempts.  Adding Jamal Williams to lead a defense will allow D.J. Williams to have a breakout year and Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey, although aging, will continue to perform at a high-level.  The Broncos’ may finish at 7-9 given the weak conference they are in.  I think the Broncos will finish third in the AFC West behind the San Diego Chargers and the much-improved Oakland Raiders.

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Brian Dawkins - Weapon X

This video is unreal.  I had seen this a while back, but while writing up the Broncos' preview I had to post it.  Love his passion.  Watch all 10 minutes...it is worth it if you love football.

Elvis Dumervil Could Miss the 2010 Season

Denver Broncos' star outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil tore his pectoral muscle today and will likely require surgery, just a month after signing a six year, $43.2 million contract.  The earliest Dumervil could be back is mid-November, but he may miss the entire year.

So what does this mean for the Broncos' season?  Well, they obviously lost an elite pass-rusher who amassed 17 sacks and four forced fumbles.  The Broncos' next OLB is listed as Jarvis Moss who has 3.5 sacks in his three year career after being a first round pick by the Broncos.  I could definitely see Denver signing a veteran free agent to play most or all of the season, but Dumervil's production at OLB cannot be matched.

Not only will the Broncos lose a considerable amount of sacks from this position, but this will allow quarterbacks to scan the field longer and pick apart the Broncos' aging secondary.  This is a HUGE blow to the Broncos who already looked to be facing a tough season, but the loss of Dumervil alone will likely cause the Broncos to lose one or two games they would have won before.

Broncos Prediction: 6-10

Tim Tebow Signs with Broncos

Tim Tebow just signed a five year, $11.25 million contract with the Denver Broncos. The contract is worth a maximum of $33 million.

Prediction: Tebow gets on the field this year whether it be in wildcat formations, Florida-esque formations or goaline situations, but he will not be a starter this year or the next.

I like Tim Tebow I just do not think he will end up being the player the Broncos want him to be.

My Pre-draft analysis sums it up:

#6 rated QB- Tim Tebow, Florida

Biggest Strength: All the intangibles, a winner.

Biggest Question: Does his game translate in to the NFL?

Where he will go: 1^st-2^nd round. Tim Tebow is probably the most talked about player in this draft… and he is not even a solid first round pick. Because he is so talked about and hyped some team is going to take the risk on him. It happens every year that some player has a big name or does really well at the combine and goes a lot earlier then they should.

Where he should go/ prediction: 4^th round. If he had the exact same skill set and played for a small division one team, he would not even be considered in the first round. I would much rather have a player like QB Pat White from last year, a player with a lot more talent and upside. I like the way Tebow plays; I just think he is over valued. I would draft him as an H-back and not as a QB.

NFL Comparison: Byron Leftwich