Could Indy Be looking for a Successor?

Article courtesy of Guest Contributor and NFL Draft 101 Writer: Jared Counterman

Peyton Manning and the Colts

The 1998 draft didn't know it at the time, but it would go on to change the NFL for the next decade and a half. General manager, Bill Polian, selected Peyton Manning over future bust Ryan Leaf with the first overall selection. Over the time that has passed since, Manning has won an un-parralled 4 MVP awards and has carried an Indianapolis team to 8 straight 10+ win seasons. Polian has enjoyed the luxury of having a HOF player behind center over his time in Indianapolis, which allowed him to habitually hit his first round picks. The selection of Manning was the beginning of an era of consistency for Polian's organization.

The Reality and Future Strategy

Aaron Rodgers after 2005 NFL Draft

As every football fan knows, you can't have your HOF QB forever. Eventually, he is going to hang up the cleats and at 35 years old, Manning hasn't exactly found the fountain of youth. Recent rumors have been swirling around that Mr. Polian may be interested in following the new found blueprint Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson laid  by drafting Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 NFL draft. Rodgers rode the pine for three seasons, holding a clipboard behind Packer great Brett Favre. In his time on the bench, Rodgers was able to develope a deep relationship with HC Mike McCarthy and the offense he deploys. Only a couple seasons into the experiment, Green Bay has already topped the NFL once and seems poised to make frequent runs at the Lombardi trophy. Professional football has been buzzing. Developing a franchise guy over multiple seasons is a trending way to manage the most important position in pro sports; the quarterback.

This is the section of the article where I'm going to blindly make an attempt at cracking into the mind of draft genius, Bill Polian. Polian has been known to be completely unpredictable in April, but there are some constants in his draft strategy. Always look for Bill to get high character guys, Indianapolis has built a special environment around their facilities and they rarely have to deal with off the feild issues. Media clouding has stayed out of Polian's locker rooms and I expect that to stay that way. 


That puts guys like Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, and Washington's Jake Locker into the conversation. Polian's draft history also hints that production is a very important factor when being ranked among Indy's board. So that keeps all three in the coversation, considering all of them have started three or more seasons. Polian has been a frequenter shopper with Big-10 players, but doesn't mind taking guys from smaller schools. Look at it this way, only he knows, but we can use that history to make stabs at it.

The Contenders: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Jake Locker

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Now that i've got it down to three guys, this process becomes more of a guess. All three guys are going to go through a learning curve, as does every rookie regardless of position, but I'm going to take Dalton off this list for a few reasons. First being I think his upside is the least out of all three guys I've been rambling about and upside is a big element when developing a guy. Secondly I think Polian likes guys that have distinct skill sets (Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Dallas Clark). Dalton, in my opinion, doesn't have any "wow" abilities. 

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Both Kaepernick and Locker bring attributes to the table that aren't seen every day in scouting. The spread that Dalton orchestrated at TCU doesn't translate to the pros at all. With this being said, I'm going to take Dalton out of my speculative running for the Indianapolis throne. Kaepernick is going to need to longest transition time as any QB coming into the NFL in 2011. At Nevada, Colin played in the "pistol" offense, an offense that doesn't deploy any NFL principles. Regardless of the system, Kaepernick is a supreme talent and has a promising career ahead of him. I just don't see Polian shying away from a pro-style guy and going with a wildcard in Kaepernick. 

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Jake Locker, the longtime Huskie hero, is the only guy I'm going to put money on if Polian is convinced its time to grab a student. Over Locker's time in college his stock has been bipolar to say it nicely. In early 2010, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper touted Locker as the "future number one selection in the draft". Locker opted to not compete with Sam Bradford and stay at Washington for his senior season. Only a year later, Locker's draft stock varies from team to team, I've heard third round at best and "a sure fire top-10 talent". With Locker's leadership abilities and loyalty, I think Polian would be crazy not to go with him, once again if this is the true thought process.

Who Knows Really?

Theres' truly only one way to find out what the genius is going to do with his QB situation, and that way is to glue yourself to the television from the 28th-30th of April. This could turn out to be an elaborate peice of trade bait, or what most people have grown to call a "smoke screen". Whatever the situation may be, Bill's got it covered and if your a true Indianapolis Colts fan, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

Colin Kaepernick Scouting Report

Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada, 6'5 225 lbs

SKILLS

Don't these 2 QBs just look similar?

Size/Arm Strength: 9.5 - Extremely gifted as an athlete, Colin Kaepernick's long and lean frame is reminiscent of Vince Young, former University of Texas Longhorn and current NFL player. Needs to add some weight to his skinny frame, but nonetheless he has ideal size for a quarterback in the NFL.

Kaepernick competed at the annual summer passing camp, the Peyton Manning Passing Academy last summer in preparations for his senior season, catching the eye of former Super Bowl winner and Pro-Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning and younger brother Eli Manning, also a Super Bowl winer and Pro-Bowler. The two brothers "giggled" at how much velocity and zip there was to Colin Kaepernick's ball. His arm strength might've been the most impressive they had ever seen. These are two of the NFL's best saying this. 


Even more so following the Senior Bowl, Colin Kaepernick's ability really came into national focus. 

Colin K. impressed the Manning Brothers

Here is what NFL Draft Scout said following their evaluation of Colin Kaepernick's senior bowl week, 

"Displaying the arm strength, accuracy and touch to be an early round pick, Kaepernick played side by side with Washington's Jake Locker... and was the more impressive thrower." 

My position on Jake Locker is well documented within this site, but this high of praise for Kaepernick's ability is universal among scouts involved with the draft. 

I recently spoke with and have gotten to know better Eric Galko from Optimum Scouting. A respectable and knowledgable draft expert, Eric could not help but listen in on an NFL scout talking about Colin Kaepernick. In regards to what the scout said, 

"Heard on plane back from scout that Kaepernick could go as high as 2nd round! I think Mia, Ten, Min most interested; I think he's a project."

 I usually smirk and give little credence when draft bloggers mention sources or scouts, but seeing how Eric personally was onboard a plane with the scout, I am convinced that the report is firm. To the point, if Kaepernick continues to show this kind of improvement in the NFL Combine, his stock will only go higher. The closer and closer we get to April 28th, the more possible it becomes for Colin Kaepernick to get drafted in the late first round area. 

Accuracy: 7 – In each progressive year, Colin Kaepernick improved his completion percentage, finishing the 2010 season with a 64.9 completion percentage (53% freshman year, 54% sophomore year, and 58% junior year). 

Colin K. and his delivery

Despite the awkward delivery, Kaepernick's ability to fit the ball in tight windows is often overlooked. His high throwing plane is what allows Colin to make throws over linebackers but underneath the safety. In the NFL he won't get away with forcing throws over the middle due to much more talented linebackers, however I really do feel throwing above the reach of linebackers is one of Colin Kaepernick's strong attributes as a quarterback. 

In looking over Colin Kaepernick's games this season, he flashed an ability to make solid throws outside of the numbers. He is inconsistent with his ball placement on these throws, but he does a good job of minimizing turnovers. That being said, he This ability dovetails off of Kaepernick's huge arm and the velocity he is able to put behind the football. 

The consensus concern is Kaepernick's accuracy vertical and deep down the field. Kap was never asked to throw many "go routes" because of a option run, spread attack offense. Kaepernick excelled in the short passing game, and was particularly effective throwing intermediate passes outside of the numbers. The flashes of greatness are quite evident in the big plays and highlights Colin Kaepernick put on display throughout his career. The stats do not lie about his ability to produce. The thing going forward will be his consistency in being accurate, cleaning up of technique, and making a label for himself. Is he just a "developmental project"? Or can he convince an NFL team that he can come in and compete early on? 

Throwing Mechanics/Footwork: 5 – This is the area with the most fluctuation in evaluation. You have solid junior and senior tape on Colin Kaepernick performance wise, but throwing mechanics and footwork are glaring weaknesses. Major improvement and development are musts for the kid. At the same token, as an evaluator for the draft, you have to take into consideration the work, effort, and results from Kaepernick's pre-draft workouts, senior bowl and combine which is coming up this weekend. 

When I break down Colin's throwing motion, he surprisingly gets the ball out very quickly. His non-throwing arm, the lead hand is what throws people off. He pronates his arm straight forward in an unorthodox manner, but behind that cover he rears the ball back and fires it out with great velocity. I found out that this quick delivery however came in spurts. Colin gets into trouble when he puts in a windup to his throws. This can be attributed to his former days as a baseball player (actually drafted by the Cubs in '09). Nevertheless his delivery needs work, but somehow is effective. 

Colin's release and spin of the ball is quite exceptional. His clean, tight spiral was evident in senior bowl practices. This release combined with his velocity, arm strength, and flashes of accuracy intrigue talent evaluators. The ceiling for Colin Kaepernick in the 2011 NFL Draft is as high as any quarterback available. 

Colin K., next surprise 1st rounder?

Mobility/Athleticism: 10 - In each of his final 3 seasons at Nevada, Colin Kaepernick averaged more than 7 yards per rush, compiled more than 1,100 yards rushing, and scored 16 or more touchdowns. His final year in 2010, Colin did what only 2 other modern quarterbacks have done. He, along with Tim Tebow, and Cam Newton are the only quarterbacks to throw for 20 or more touchdowns, and run for 20 or more touchdowns. The 20-20 club so to speak. 


Kaepernick's athleticism as mentioned earlier in this report, is remarkable. At 6'5 and 225 lbs, Colin Kaepernick runs like a deer; he is a long strider, and is very smooth in open space. His top end speed is what separates Colin Kaepernick; Colin is very similar to Cam Newton in that both hvae the ability to really turn on the jets after hitting the second and third levels of a defense (linebackers and safeties). On tape, you can just see his 4.5 speed as he blows by safeties and cornerbacks en route to a long touchdown run. His combine results need to provide backing for the claims that he can run a sub 4.5 40 time. 


The escapability factor, a growing trait necessary at the NFL level, is another positive to Kap's game. Particularly against Boise State in their home upset win, Colin Kaepernick was able to consistently avoid the pressure, move around comfortably inside and outside the pocket, and throw the ball accurately downfield. Any time he needed to come up with a big play, he made it. This ability to escape pressure also leads to another plus for Kap, as he is an accurate passer while on the move. His arm strength and velocity allows him to make NFL caliber throws down the sidelines and outside the numbers. 

ANALYSIS

Best fit: Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings; as mentioned before all three are interested. All three teams have strong receiving corps, and all three most definitely need starting quarterbacks. Steam will come up around April about HOW interested these teams may or may not be, and that is something I will be closely following and updating on. 

X-Factor: How will he fair at the combine, competing against top NFL Draft prospects Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, and Christian Ponder? Will he come in a more polished quarterback? Or will the stigma of being a developmental player stick with him? 


The interviewing process for Colin Kaepernick will also be a huge deciding factor in where he gets drafted. Everyone knows how good of a kid Kaepernick is, but what needs to be determined for certain is whether or not his football IQ is up to par. "Chalk talk" with NFL teams will likely be the center of interviewing for Kaepernick. 

"Chalk talk"

Playing in a Pistol offense Colin Kaepernick will be transitioning to a completely different offensive scheme at the pro level, regardless of who drafts him. His biggest problem at times, is his decision making, as he will force throws towards his primary receiver. He rarely went through difficult passer progression, so this will be a big key for teams interested in drafting Colin Kaepernick. The upside and physical attributes warrant high draft value, but the unpolished passing ability will draw concerns. Intangibles of football IQ, character, and personal drive will have to be the overriding factors for Colin Kaepernick if he expects to get drafted at the end of round 1.

Where he will be picked: Late 1st to Mid 2nd Round

Where he should be picked: Early 2nd Round

NFL Comparison: Vince Young, QB, Texas