Could Indy Be looking for a Successor?

Article courtesy of Guest Contributor and NFL Draft 101 Writer: Jared Counterman

Peyton Manning and the Colts

The 1998 draft didn't know it at the time, but it would go on to change the NFL for the next decade and a half. General manager, Bill Polian, selected Peyton Manning over future bust Ryan Leaf with the first overall selection. Over the time that has passed since, Manning has won an un-parralled 4 MVP awards and has carried an Indianapolis team to 8 straight 10+ win seasons. Polian has enjoyed the luxury of having a HOF player behind center over his time in Indianapolis, which allowed him to habitually hit his first round picks. The selection of Manning was the beginning of an era of consistency for Polian's organization.

The Reality and Future Strategy

Aaron Rodgers after 2005 NFL Draft

As every football fan knows, you can't have your HOF QB forever. Eventually, he is going to hang up the cleats and at 35 years old, Manning hasn't exactly found the fountain of youth. Recent rumors have been swirling around that Mr. Polian may be interested in following the new found blueprint Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson laid  by drafting Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 NFL draft. Rodgers rode the pine for three seasons, holding a clipboard behind Packer great Brett Favre. In his time on the bench, Rodgers was able to develope a deep relationship with HC Mike McCarthy and the offense he deploys. Only a couple seasons into the experiment, Green Bay has already topped the NFL once and seems poised to make frequent runs at the Lombardi trophy. Professional football has been buzzing. Developing a franchise guy over multiple seasons is a trending way to manage the most important position in pro sports; the quarterback.

This is the section of the article where I'm going to blindly make an attempt at cracking into the mind of draft genius, Bill Polian. Polian has been known to be completely unpredictable in April, but there are some constants in his draft strategy. Always look for Bill to get high character guys, Indianapolis has built a special environment around their facilities and they rarely have to deal with off the feild issues. Media clouding has stayed out of Polian's locker rooms and I expect that to stay that way. 


That puts guys like Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, TCU's Andy Dalton, and Washington's Jake Locker into the conversation. Polian's draft history also hints that production is a very important factor when being ranked among Indy's board. So that keeps all three in the coversation, considering all of them have started three or more seasons. Polian has been a frequenter shopper with Big-10 players, but doesn't mind taking guys from smaller schools. Look at it this way, only he knows, but we can use that history to make stabs at it.

The Contenders: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Jake Locker

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Now that i've got it down to three guys, this process becomes more of a guess. All three guys are going to go through a learning curve, as does every rookie regardless of position, but I'm going to take Dalton off this list for a few reasons. First being I think his upside is the least out of all three guys I've been rambling about and upside is a big element when developing a guy. Secondly I think Polian likes guys that have distinct skill sets (Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Dallas Clark). Dalton, in my opinion, doesn't have any "wow" abilities. 

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Both Kaepernick and Locker bring attributes to the table that aren't seen every day in scouting. The spread that Dalton orchestrated at TCU doesn't translate to the pros at all. With this being said, I'm going to take Dalton out of my speculative running for the Indianapolis throne. Kaepernick is going to need to longest transition time as any QB coming into the NFL in 2011. At Nevada, Colin played in the "pistol" offense, an offense that doesn't deploy any NFL principles. Regardless of the system, Kaepernick is a supreme talent and has a promising career ahead of him. I just don't see Polian shying away from a pro-style guy and going with a wildcard in Kaepernick. 

Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker

Jake Locker, the longtime Huskie hero, is the only guy I'm going to put money on if Polian is convinced its time to grab a student. Over Locker's time in college his stock has been bipolar to say it nicely. In early 2010, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper touted Locker as the "future number one selection in the draft". Locker opted to not compete with Sam Bradford and stay at Washington for his senior season. Only a year later, Locker's draft stock varies from team to team, I've heard third round at best and "a sure fire top-10 talent". With Locker's leadership abilities and loyalty, I think Polian would be crazy not to go with him, once again if this is the true thought process.

Who Knows Really?

Theres' truly only one way to find out what the genius is going to do with his QB situation, and that way is to glue yourself to the television from the 28th-30th of April. This could turn out to be an elaborate peice of trade bait, or what most people have grown to call a "smoke screen". Whatever the situation may be, Bill's got it covered and if your a true Indianapolis Colts fan, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

MNF: Texans Perspective

Players to Watch

LB Brian Cushing- After missing four games because of suspension, last years defensive rookie of the year will be back on the field for his third start. The Texans defense, which is last in the NFL in yards allowed, is in desperate need of someone to step up and be a playmaker. With Cushing getting two games under his belt and a bye week to help get him back to form, I expect to see him all over the field making plays in this game.

DE Mario Williams - The key to beating Peyton Manning is getting a lot of pressure on him. That is exactly why the Texans used the first overall pick in the 2006 draft on DE Mario Williams. They need a big game out of Williams tonight, a couple of sacks would go a long way.

RB Arian Foster - Everyone trashed the Colts defense after Foster lit them up in week one and ran for 231 yards. I would expect the Colts defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder and do everything in their power to stop him. It will be interesting to see if Foster can still have a big game against the Colts porous defense.

Key Matchup: WR Andre Johnson vs Colts Secondary

Last game against the Colts, Andre Johnson was held to only 33 yards receiving. Since then Andre Johnson, who in my opinion is the best receiver in the NFL, has been dominant. Even with ankle problems Johnson has put up big numbers. I would be shocked if the Colts defense could shut down Johnson again. Look for him to have a big game against a Colts defense that does not have anyone that can match up with the 6'3" 225 lbs burner.

Why the Texans Will Win: The Texans were 1-15 against the Colts before beating them in week one. I think that win really boosted their confidence and got the monkey off of their back. The Texans should have a different swagger going into this game. It also helps that the Colts will be extremely thin on both sides of the ball tonight, with many key players down with injuries or questionable for the game. Look for this game to be a shootout between two great offenses and two poor defenses. The Texans will be able to pull this one off because they can both run and pass the ball effectively and they have a more talented team tonight.

Prediction: Texans 38 Colts 28

MNF: Colts Perspective

Players to Watch

RB Mike Hart and RB Donald Brown-Joseph Addai is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, so Hart and Brown should split the majority of the carries in the backfield. Manning has absolutely been torching teams through the air and had 433 passing yard in the first match up against the Texans. Houston will likely design their game plan around limiting Manning. If they do so, look for the Colts to want a more balanced attack this time so that they can control the clock, which means opportunities for these two relatively unknown backs.

DE Robert Mathis-Part of the Colts dynamic defensive ends, Mathis will be key to putting pressure on Matt Schaub. Schaub likes to air it out and as a result is prone to throwing interceptions if pressured. Mathis will be a key player for the Colts to win the turnover battle.

WR Pierre Garcon-With Austin Collie and Dallas Clark sidelined, Garcon will likely see a lot of throws from Manning. Last week he had his first 100-yard receiving game of the year and will be looking for another against the Texan’s last ranked pass defense. He is likely in for a big game.

Key Matchup: Colts’ Defensive Tackles vs. Arian Foster

Foster is having a fantastic year, in large part due to his 231 yard rushing effort vs. the Colts in week 1. The Colts need to prevent another explosive outing from Foster and it all starts up front. The Colts are 28th overall in rushing defense and tackles Daniel Muir and Fili Moala are a part of the problem. They don’t record many sacks, so the Colts need them to be stopgaps against the run, something they haven’t been doing a good job of so far this season. The Colts’ defensive ends will need to prevent Foster from running all over them if they do not want a repeat of their first meeting.

Why the Colts Will Win: You can bank on Peyton Manning turning in another stellar game for the Colts, and they should have no problem scoring points against a weak Texans defense. It will be up to the defense to slow down the Texan’s offense. If they can limit Houston to less than 27 points, which is very manageable, I think the Colts win this game. The Colts will find a way to hold Foster under 150 yards rushing and will force Schaub to move out of the pocket and force throws. Peyton Manning will take care of the rest.

Prediction: Colts 31, Texan 24

Indianapolis Colts 2010 Preview and Prediction

Last Years Record            14-2

Wins:  Jaguars (x2), Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans (x2), Rams, 49ers, Texans (x2), Patriots, Ravens, Broncos

Losses: Jets, Bills

Biggest Playmaker            Peyton Manning

QB, Tennessee, Drafted #1, 13^th Year

Quite simply, Peyton Manning has had a ridiculous career.  A sure hall of famer and three time NFL MVP, I think Peyton Manning could even get the Rams close to the playoffs this year.  He has plenty of weapons surrounding him including WRs Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and TE Dallas Clark, his favorite target.

Impact Player            Dwight Freeney

DE, Syracuse, Drafted #11, 9^th Year

Freeney is coming off two straight pro bowl seasons in which he recorded 24 sacks.  Freeney is looking to lead a Colts’ defense that dropped from 11^th to 18^th in yards per game from 2008 to 2009.  Dwight’s ankle should be fully recovered after playing through some pain in the Super Bowl a year ago. 

Biggest Offseason Addition            Deshea Townsend

CB, Alabama, Drafted #117, 13^th Year

The Colts did not make a lot of offseason acquisitions because, quite frankly, they didn’t need to.  They are coming off a year in which they could have gone 16-0 if they chose to try to win their last two games.  Townsend brings 12 years of experience to the Colts secondary and will likely be their nickel back.

Biggest Offseason Loss            Ryan Lilja

Guard, Kansas State, Undrafted, 7^th Year

Ryan Lilja is the only starter from the Colts’ offensive line not back from a year ago.  Lilja has been a part of a great offensive line protecting Peyton Manning but has had some injury problems the last few years.

Biggest Draft Steal            Kavell Conner

LB, Clemson, Drafted #240, Rookie

Kavell Conner was projected by many to be a fifth round pick but he fell to the Colts in the seventh round.  Conner is very good against the run but struggles a bit in pass coverage and should contribute to the Colts’ defense down the road, as he has impressed his coaches thus far in the preseason. 

Biggest Draft Reach            Brody Eldridge

TE, Oklahoma, Drafted #162, Rookie

Eldridge was considered by most to be the best blocking tight end in the draft after starting games at both center and guard for Oklahoma during his senior year.  However, his receiving skills are very questionable and he is an inexperienced pass catcher, making only 13 grabs in his four years at OU.  He also has durability concerns as an ankle injury caused him to miss three games his junior year and a neck injury ended his senior season. 

Offseason Grade            B+

The Colts drafted a very solid pass rusher in DE Jerry Hughes from TCU with the 31^st overall pick, a spot that needed some depth.  The only players that the Colts are not returning (besides Lilja) are role players who can be replaced.  The Townsend pickup was a good one, and truth be told, the Colts didn’t need to make an awful lot of moves…they were one interception for a touchdown away from winning the Super Bowl, and could have finished the regular season at 16-0.

X-Factor            Run Game

In 2009 the Colts offense ran for just 1,294 yards (81 yards per game) and 3.5 yards per carry.  The Colts obviously had a very strong passing attack with Manning at the helm.  If the offensive line can produce more in the run game and Joseph Addai or Donald Brown steps up the Colts could have an unstoppable offense.

Name You Should Know            Antoine Bethea

FS, Howard, Drafted #207, 5^th Year

Bethea is hardly a household name but this four-year veteran from Howard has been to two pro bowls already.  Bethea had to step up last year as his fellow safety Bob Sanders was injured, and he should only be more productive with Sanders back in the lineup.

Rising Star            Pierre Garcon

WR, Mount Union, Drafted #205, 3^rd Year

Pierre Garcon came out of nowhere last year stepping up for the injured WR Anthony Gonzalez and caught 47 balls for 765 yards and four touchdowns.  I expect Garcon’s numbers to increase this year after a year working with Peyton Manning. 

Offensive Outlook            B+

With Peyton Manning in charge of the offense it’s hard to bet against them.  He has had very solid pass protection in front of him throughout his career but the run game is a concern.  Donald Brown has shown potential.  The Colts saw a lot of young receivers step up last year and they expect Anthony Gonzalez to contribute as he is back from injury.  Dallas Clark is one of Manning’s favorite targets and is coming off a pro bowl year.

Defensive Outlook            B+

The Colts defense ranked 8^th in points allowed a year ago, and their biggest playmaker on that side of the ball, Bob Sanders is returning after missing most of the 2009 season with a torn biceps.  The Colts secondary was strengthened by the addition of veteran CB Deshea Townsend.  Gary Brackett leads a solid linebacking core while Freeney and Robert Mathis look to improve on thei 22 combine sacks from a year ago. 

Special Teams Outlook            B

Kicker Adam Vinatieri is back this season after missing almost all of 2009 with a knee injury and punter Pat McAfee dropped 21 punts inside the 20 to only six touchbacks, in addition to handling kickoffs.  The Colts have been missing an explosive return man so they used a seventh round pick on Indiana’s Ray Fisher to hopefully fill that need.

Projected 2010 Record            14-2

After flirting with a perfect season a year ago and a Super Bowl victory the Colts are looking to repeat their early successes.  It’s hard to bet against Manning, especially with a lot of talent around him, but I don’t see the Colts vying for a perfect record again.  There are simply too many things that can go wrong.  However, the Colts will be hungry after the Super Bowl defeat and will have a great year.