Day 1 Winners and Losers

Winners

Jacksonville Jaguars

It was very surprising that Gabbert was not the 2^nd quarterback chosen in the draft, and the Jaguars benefited from him falling to them at #10. He will be able to spend time studying on the bench behind David Garrard, and will not be rushed into the starting role, something I don’t think any of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft can handle. There are many needs on the defensive side of the ball, but when a potential franchise quarterback falls into your lap, you have to pull the trigger.

Detroit Lions

I can’t think of a single draft that had Fairley going to the Lions, but now that it has happened, it looks awfully good on paper. Lining up Suh and Fairley will give Qb’s nightmares for years to come, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jay Cutler was already actively looking for a trade out of the division. The secondary still needs work, but may not be as big an issue if the opposing quarterbacks are constantly finding themselves on the ground.

New York Giants

Your Royal Highness, Prince Amukamara, fell farther than expected and the Giants couldn’t be more pleased about it. They get a very talented corner to help a defense that was toasted by both the Eagles and Packers which left them out of the playoffs. Solidifying the secondary to compliment an already elite pass rush is just what the Giants need to get them back into the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills

No it’s not a mistake, the Bills this year actually managed to pick a solid 1^st round choice. After the disastrous picks that were Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Maybin in 2007 and 2009 respectively, and the misguided pick of CJ Spiller to a team that already had two solid running backs in 2010, the Bills went with Marcell Dareus, who will shore up what was an awful defense last year. Perhaps most importantly, Dareus is a guy who can start right away, and without a lot of downside, which the Bills need considering their past draft failures.

Losers

Atlanta Falcons

After having the best record in the NFC and then embarrassingly trounced at home by the Packers in the playoffs, the Falcons made a knee-jerk reaction by trading so high up in the draft. Julio Jones is a fine player and a solid pick, but the price to get him was far too high, and he isn’t a player that is the difference between perennial playoff team and Super Bowl champion. Giving up 2 first round picks, a second rounder and 2 fourth round picks is way too much for someone who isn’t even the best wide-receiver in this draft. Patience is the key in the NFL, but the Falcons want a Super Bowl now, and it may be very costly to them in the future.

Minnesota Vikings

Easily the reach of the draft, Christian Ponder wasn’t predicted to go in the 1^st round, but somehow finds himself a Viking with the 12^th pick. The Vikings desperately needed a quarterback, but if they really wanted Ponder they should have traded down. Instead they have a quarterback who is far from a sure thing, as well as an aging team that could use youth at a lot of positions. Once one play away from the Super Bowl, the Vikings have taken quite a tumble, and look like they might be in the cellar of the NFC North for at least a couple of years.

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton is a very divisive person with about half of NFL fans believing he will be a star, and the other half thinking he will be the next JaMarcus Russell. You can count me as part of the latter half because I think there are just too many questions surrounding the character, intelligence, and ability of Newton to make him the top overall pick in the draft. To me it would have made more sense to either trade down, or go with Miller, Green, or Dareus, three players who can play right away and are about as close to sure things as you get with rookies. The Panthers just used a high draft pick on Clausen last year, and if they really feel like he isn’t going to pan out, just bite the bullet for one more year and get Andrew Luck next year, who is far and away better than any Qb in this year’s draft. I think this pick will end up setting the Panthers back for the awhile.

Chicago Bears

The Bears don’t find themselves in the “losers” list because of their draft picks, but because of the mess they caused with the Ravens. The Bears initiated a trade with the Ravens to take their spot, but somehow didn’t send anyone to inform the NFL that the trade had taken place, effectively making the Ravens run out of time and lose one spot in the draft. Not only will the Bears likely be faced with some sort of repercussion from the NFL, but it reflects terribly on them as an organization and could force some teams to shy away from trying to trade with the Bears in the future.

Troy Smith is legit

Why did it take so long for someone to give Troy Smith a chance to start? 17/28, 356 yards, and a touchdown in an overtime victory. He may not have all the physical tools, but he knows how to win and he is just a gamer. You've got to be excited if you are 49ers fan, even though they are 3-6, the NFC West is still wide open.  If they can go on a little run they could still end up getting into the playoffs.

This is pretty unbelievable:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/09000d5d81c1aac7/Jaguars-Hail-Mary-is-answered

I know you are taught to knock the ball down, but in hindsight, with no one around you, it may have made more sense to just catch the ball. I feel really bad for the Texans defense and their fans, that is a heartbreaking way to lose a game.

MNF: Jaguars Perspective

Players to watch:

TE Marcedes Lewis – The 6’6” 275 lbs tight end is off to the best start of his career. Lewis has great size and receiving skills, but he only had 7 TDs in his first 4 years. This year, however, he leads the team with 5 TDs and has finally become the legitimate weapon the Jaguars had been hoping he would turn into.

LB Kirk Morrison – After racking up 100+ tackles five years in a row with the Raiders, Morrison was traded to the Jaguars. It will be interesting to see if Morrison can still make plays sideline to sideline and help stop CJ2K.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew – Jones-Drew is the most important player to the Jaguars offense. This year he has struggled at times, and has only seen the end zone twice. Jone-Drew is simply too good of a player to continue this trend; look for him to have a break out game under the lights at home.

Key Matchup: Jaguars defense vs. RB Chris Johnson – I think every defensive coordinator in the NFL’s goal when playing the Titans is to do whatever it takes to stop Johnson and make QB Vince Young beat them. The only problem is stopping Johnson is a lot easier said than done. The key is to be extremely disciplined and contain the outside. The only teams that have done a good job against Chris Johnson are the Steelers and Broncos (they let up 34 yards and 53 yards, respectively.) Both run 3-4 based defenses, are very disciplined, hold their gaps, and contain the outside. Not surprisingly, the Titans lost both games that Chris Johnson had poor performances. It will be hard, but the Jaguars are going to have to do whatever it takes to slow him down.

Why the Jaguars will win: The Jaguars are coming off two big wins the last two weeks, QB David Garrard and the offense has shown that they are capable of spreading the ball and putting up some points (31 and 38 in the last two games.) The Jaguars defense has really struggled this season, but the one place they have excelled is stopping the run. If they are able to stop the run I have no doubt that will be able to come away with the victory.

Final Score: Jaguars 27 Titans 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 2010 Preview and Prediction

Last Years Record            7-9

Wins:  Texans (x2), Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Jets, Bills,

Losses:  Colts (x2), Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, 49ers, Dolphins, Patriots, Browns

Biggest Playmaker            Maurice Jones-Drew

RB, UCLA, Drafted #60, 5^th Year

MJD is coming off a pro bowl year when he ran for 1,391 yards and 15 touchdowns.  He is the workhorse for the Jaguars, carrying the ball 312 times a year ago and has only missed one game in his first four seasons.  In addition, he is also a very adept receiver out of the backfield, averaging 50 catches his first four years.

Impact Player            Kirk Morrison

MLB, San Diego State, Drafted #78, 6^th Year

Kirk Morrison was traded to the Jaguars this offseason from the Raiders.  The Raiders received a 4^th round pick while the Jags got a 5^th rounder and Kirk Morrison.  The Jaguars got a great deal and a great player who will immediately start and improve the Jaguars’ defense.  Morrison racked up 133 tackles, 2 sacks and 3 forced fumbles a year ago.

Biggest Offseason Addition            Kassim Osgood

WR, San Diego State, Undrafted, 8^th Year

You may be asking why a wide receiver with seven years in the league and 33 career catches could be a big offseason addition and it’s not because I think he is going to have a breakout year.  Osgood has been to three of the last four pro bowls as a special teamer and is involved in pretty much every play on special teams.

Biggest Offseason Loss            Torry Holt

WR, NC State, Drafted #6, 12^th Year

In 2009, Mike Sims-Walker emerged as a go-to receiver but Torry Holt was still a valuable presence, catching 55 balls as the number two target.  Mike Thomas caught 48 balls a year ago and is likely the second wide receiver, but the Jaguars’ receiving core lacks depth.

Biggest Draft Steal            Austen Lane

DE, Murray State, Drafted #153, Rookie

Austen Lane was a small-school talent who was projected to be picked around the third round.  The Jaguars picked him up with the Raiders 5^th round pick.  Lane is a hustler who plays with a high motor.  He was recently quoted saying, “I don’t have a goal for sacks, but I have a goal for putting people in the hospital.”  Lane is expected to contribute early in his career.

Biggest Draft Reach            D’Anthony Smith

DT, Lousiana Tech, Drafted #74, Rookie

Many people say that the Jaguars drafting Tyson Alualu with the 10^th overall pick was the reach of the draft, but how about the fact that they picked a another defensive tackle with their next pick?  Picking Smith in the early third round was a bit of reach, regardless of the fact they just reached on another player of the same position.   I’m not sure why they couldn’t have kept John Henderson and used one or both of these picks to address other needs.

Offseason Grade            B-

The trade with the Raiders for Kirk Morrison and the pick that the Jags used to select Austen Lane was a very valuable one.  They also added DE Aaron Kampan who hopes to get back to top form when he moves back to a 4-3 end.  However, their draft was far less than superb.

X-Factor            2^nd/3^rd Wide Receivers

With the departure of veteran WR Torry Holt, the Jaguars need some inexperienced wide receivers to show up and make plays to help QB David Garrard.  Mike Thomas will be the #2 receiver, with Jarrett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood pushing to be the third receiver.

Name You Should Know            David Garrard

QB, East Carolina, Drafted #108, 9^th Year

David Garrard was probably the least known quarterback in the pro bowl in 2009.   However, he was the 8^th quarterback chosen for the AFC team as five other players withdrew.  Garrard and the Jaguars are excited about the young talent at wide receiver, but Garrard needs to play consistently well or could see himself out of a starting job. 

Rising Star            Mike Sims-Walker

WR, Central Florida, Drafted #79, 4^th Year

Mike Sims-Walker emerged as a number one receiver last year, tallying 63 catches for 869 yards and seven touchdowns in his first year as a starter.  Sims-Walker will have to prove he can repeat his success, and with young receivers developing around him his numbers could increase this year. 

Offensive Outlook            C+

The Jaguars have a franchise running back in Maurice Jones-Drew, but if he were to ever go down they are in trouble.  They have a very inexperienced receiving core and their offensive line is very shaky.  They allowed 126 quarterback hits last year, the most in the league (by 20!).  David Garrard needs to be consistent, but the amount he is pressured is tough to overcome.

Defensive Outlook            C

The addition and resurgence of DE Aaron Kampman will hopefully bolster the Jaguars’ miserable pass rush of 2009, but they are very young on the inside.  Kirk Morrison leads a fairly strong linebacker committee that includes Daryl Smith and Justin Durant.  The secondary is very weak.

Special Teams Outlook            B-

Josh Scobee is coming off a very forgettable year in which he connected on just 18 of 28 field goal attempts, while punter Adam Podlesh averaged just under 42 yards per punt, but did managed 23 kicks inside the 20 to just five touchbacks.  Montell Owens may have been the AFC Special Teams representative in the pro bowl last year if it weren't for current teammate Kassim Osgood.  The Jaguars will likely look to rookies in the return game.  Running back Deji Karim and cornerback Scotty McGee already have kick returns over 45 yards through the first two games of the preseason.  

Projected 2010 Record            4-12

The Jaguars currently have the 5^th hardest schedule in NFL, based on 2009 team records.  They play in a very strong division with the Titans, Texans and Colts.  During their 7-9 campaign in 2009, their non-divisional games included the Rams, Chiefs, Bills, Seahawks, 49ers and Browns, and they only won two games by seven or more points (won games by three [overtime], three, two, three and five).  The Jaguars are very inexperienced and have too many weaknesses to challenge in the AFC South.