Day 1 Winners and Losers

Winners

Jacksonville Jaguars

It was very surprising that Gabbert was not the 2^nd quarterback chosen in the draft, and the Jaguars benefited from him falling to them at #10. He will be able to spend time studying on the bench behind David Garrard, and will not be rushed into the starting role, something I don’t think any of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft can handle. There are many needs on the defensive side of the ball, but when a potential franchise quarterback falls into your lap, you have to pull the trigger.

Detroit Lions

I can’t think of a single draft that had Fairley going to the Lions, but now that it has happened, it looks awfully good on paper. Lining up Suh and Fairley will give Qb’s nightmares for years to come, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jay Cutler was already actively looking for a trade out of the division. The secondary still needs work, but may not be as big an issue if the opposing quarterbacks are constantly finding themselves on the ground.

New York Giants

Your Royal Highness, Prince Amukamara, fell farther than expected and the Giants couldn’t be more pleased about it. They get a very talented corner to help a defense that was toasted by both the Eagles and Packers which left them out of the playoffs. Solidifying the secondary to compliment an already elite pass rush is just what the Giants need to get them back into the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills

No it’s not a mistake, the Bills this year actually managed to pick a solid 1^st round choice. After the disastrous picks that were Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Maybin in 2007 and 2009 respectively, and the misguided pick of CJ Spiller to a team that already had two solid running backs in 2010, the Bills went with Marcell Dareus, who will shore up what was an awful defense last year. Perhaps most importantly, Dareus is a guy who can start right away, and without a lot of downside, which the Bills need considering their past draft failures.

Losers

Atlanta Falcons

After having the best record in the NFC and then embarrassingly trounced at home by the Packers in the playoffs, the Falcons made a knee-jerk reaction by trading so high up in the draft. Julio Jones is a fine player and a solid pick, but the price to get him was far too high, and he isn’t a player that is the difference between perennial playoff team and Super Bowl champion. Giving up 2 first round picks, a second rounder and 2 fourth round picks is way too much for someone who isn’t even the best wide-receiver in this draft. Patience is the key in the NFL, but the Falcons want a Super Bowl now, and it may be very costly to them in the future.

Minnesota Vikings

Easily the reach of the draft, Christian Ponder wasn’t predicted to go in the 1^st round, but somehow finds himself a Viking with the 12^th pick. The Vikings desperately needed a quarterback, but if they really wanted Ponder they should have traded down. Instead they have a quarterback who is far from a sure thing, as well as an aging team that could use youth at a lot of positions. Once one play away from the Super Bowl, the Vikings have taken quite a tumble, and look like they might be in the cellar of the NFC North for at least a couple of years.

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton is a very divisive person with about half of NFL fans believing he will be a star, and the other half thinking he will be the next JaMarcus Russell. You can count me as part of the latter half because I think there are just too many questions surrounding the character, intelligence, and ability of Newton to make him the top overall pick in the draft. To me it would have made more sense to either trade down, or go with Miller, Green, or Dareus, three players who can play right away and are about as close to sure things as you get with rookies. The Panthers just used a high draft pick on Clausen last year, and if they really feel like he isn’t going to pan out, just bite the bullet for one more year and get Andrew Luck next year, who is far and away better than any Qb in this year’s draft. I think this pick will end up setting the Panthers back for the awhile.

Chicago Bears

The Bears don’t find themselves in the “losers” list because of their draft picks, but because of the mess they caused with the Ravens. The Bears initiated a trade with the Ravens to take their spot, but somehow didn’t send anyone to inform the NFL that the trade had taken place, effectively making the Ravens run out of time and lose one spot in the draft. Not only will the Bears likely be faced with some sort of repercussion from the NFL, but it reflects terribly on them as an organization and could force some teams to shy away from trying to trade with the Bears in the future.

Andy Dalton Scouting Report

Andy Dalton, QB, TCU, 6'2 215 lbs

SKILLS

Strengths: The consummate winner, Andy Dalton set a TCU record with 42 career victories as opposed to only 7 losses. 6 of those 7 losses were by 7 points or less, an indication of how the Horned Frogs were almost always in a position to win just about EVERY game Andy Dalton quarterbacked from 2007-2010. A four year starter after being redshirted his true freshman season, Dalton improved his completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, passer rating, and lowered his sack total in each consecutive year as the chart below shows…

Year	Completion Percentage	Yards per Attempt	TD/INT Ratio	QB Passer Rating	Sack Total
2007	59%	6.63	0.9 (10-11)	118.48	16
2008	59%	7.3	2.2 (11-5)	129.19	14
2009	61%	8.53	2.9 (23-8)	151.83	12
2010	66%	9.04	4.5 (27-6)	166.48	8

Not only did he just win games though, Dalton also led TCU to a bowl game in every season he started as QB (3-1 record in those games). 

Running for a score in TCU's Rose Bowl win vs Wisconsin

Andy Dalton has good size for an NFL starting quarterback (6'2 215 lbs) and despite being criticized for his lack of physical attributes, Dalton showed mobility and toughness throughout his career. He carried the football more than 400 times and lost zero fumbles. Has ability to make people miss moving from within the pocket as well as out in space, while still maintaining control of the ball. 

He has a nice quick release, does a great job of squaring his shoulder to the target and getting the ball out. This can be seen in TCU's quick passing game which is full of screens, bubble routes, and 3 step passing game routes. Dalton's extraordinary anticipation of throwing windows makes him a very accurate passer. His anticipation, high football IQ, and timing with receivers more than makes up for his lack of elite arm strength and velocity. 

In his March pro day, Dalton was said to have been impeccably accurate with the football; all 50 passes were catchable and his velocity impressed a number of the scouts in attendance. 46 representatives from 26 separate NFL clubs were present for the TCU pro-day.

Devoted work ethic, high character kid, and fearless leader, Andy Dalton has the mental makeup that any team would love to have. He wins ball games, motivates his teammates, throws the football accurately, and cuts down on turnovers.

Very similar to Colt Mccoy in that Andy has a strong will and high character; skill set similarities include accuracy, anticipation, and mobility.

Weaknesses: Albeit Dalton has an excellent mental make-up and other important quarterback qualities, this QB lacks elite arm strength and was rarely called upon to throw deep passes outside the numbers and downfield. I will say he displayed nice touch on his deep balls, I do not see the ability to really drive routes 25-30 yards downfield. This combined with his relatively average velocity, makes me believe his draft placement is limited to a west coast offensive scheme.

This next weakness is more of a quirk than anything, but is hardly recognized in scouting community. At times, Dalton will show a similar delivery to Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick, whom I see as a late 1st round talent, has been largely criticized for his awkward and unconventional delivery that I believe stems from his high school pitching days. Kaepernick will pronate his non-throwing left arm while bringing the ball behind his head, creating a strange illusion to film watchers. In a similar fashion, Dalton will do this very thing. Given he doesn't consistently make this mechanical error, Dalton needs to clean up this part of his throwing motion.

Another problem I find is his upright throwing stance lacking strong knee bend and active feet. As I have noted earlier, Dalton has the ability to get out and run, however Dalton is just beginning to show a comfort level necessary within the passing pocket. Dalton has to improve on being more active with his feet in feeling pressure,  sliding to avoid sacks, and get more stride into his throws. That being said, I have to counter this by stating that Andy does a good job with his feet in relation to the base of his throws in that he doesn't have an issue with over striding. 

Finally, the most talked over weakness of all quarterbacks in this draft class, the spread option system. Andy Dalton at TCU ran a spread-run option system that utilized a gun-option effectively, while spitting the ball out to slot receivers in a short, consistent 3 step timing manner. The occasional deep pass was utilized efficiently, and a strong running attack was prevalent. I will say that there are a number of plays evidencing Dalton's ability to go through a progression, however in most of his throws Dalton would catch the snap, simply rock back, and throw a pre-determined read. The pre-snap part of Dalton's game is a strong suit on one hand, nonetheless a majority of the throws Dalton made were fairly simple and easy completions. The biggest thing going forward is getting Dalton comfortable dropping back from center, making reads in that drop, and learning how to get adequate knee bend and foot-action (no pun intended) in order to drive the football downfield. 

ANALYSIS

Best fit: First off the team must be a West coast system. That knocks off quite a few teams, but most teams implementing a WCO in the league today are in need of a QB. Those teams include San Francisco, Minnesota, Seattle, and Washington. 

While all of the previously mentioned franchises likely have a strong interest, as will many other teams looking for serviceable backups, I see the Minnesota Vikings as being the best fit for Andy Dalton schematically and in accordance with the player personnel.

In the best season of Brett Favre's career (statistically), Favre was most effective in throwing the short dump-off or screen routes, completing more passes (126) in attempts from 1-10 yards than any other area on the field. From the film I've seen, Dalton as afore mentioned, was equally effective in the short passing game at TCU. In that 2009 season, the Vikings were a stone's throw from making the NFL's Super Bowl; the reason for such a dramatic dropout in 2010 obviously stems from the lethargic play of Brett Favre. After throwing for 14 TDs and zero picks in attempts 11-20 yards in 2009, Favre threw 4 TDs to 8 interceptions in the same attempt range. Moreover, Favre's TD/INT ratio in 2009 for attempts 1-10 yards was 10/2, while in 2010 the ratio fell to a lousy 5/4.

By bringing in Dalton, the Vikings can actually rebuild the state of the franchise from within. They can wait until round 2, trade down right in front of Seattle, and get Dalton for a much lower price than signing another veteran quarterback or trading for Kevin Kolb once a CBA is met. Dalton has less of the major concerns that the top QBs of this class have, and would be a much safer pick in rounds 2 or 3 depending on the vibe around the league. Dalton teamed with Percy Harvin in the quick hitting passing attack, and Adrian Peterson pounding the running game could bring some life back to a dying Minnesota Vikings offense. In round 1 the Vikings can address glaring needs on defense, draft Dalton on day 2, and possibly draft Dalton's go to man Jeremy Kerley late on day 3. 

X-Factor: Can Dalton overcome the "weak arm" and "spread system quarterback" labels placed upon him? How will these West Coast offense teams address their needs at the quarterback? In my mind, there's no time to wait as long as there's no CBA. If teams draft as differently as I think they will, then Dalton could go higher than expected. 

Where will he be drafted: In the middle portion of the 2nd Round

Where should he be drafted: 3rd Round- There's so much depth across the board on the defensive side, talent-wise, to pass up. Dalton will be drafted much earlier than expected by a West Coast Offense desperate for immediate quarterback help.

NFL Comparison: Colt Mccoy, QB, Cleveland Browns

Andy Dalton vs. San Diego State

Andy Dalton highlight tape

AB's Mock Draft: February Edition 2.0

Defensive linemen dominate The3-4's latest mock draft (12 of 32 picks), Blaine Gabbert falls into the Vikings lap, and the Steelers get a bargain deal for one of the draft's most talented cornerbacks. 

Find out who your favorite team drafts in this mock draft and feel free to comment below your opinions. 

NFL Team	Player	School	Position
1. Carolina Panthers	Nick Fairley	Auburn	DT
2. Denver Broncos	Da’Quan Bowers	Clemson	DE
3.  Buffalo Bills	Cam Newton	Auburn	QB
4. Cincinatti Bengals	A.J. Green	Georgia	WR
5. Arizona Cardinals	Von Miller	TAMU	OLB
6. Cleveland Browns	Robert Quinn	UNC	OLB/DE
7. San Fran. 49ers	Cam Jordan	Cal	DE
8. Tennessee Titans	Patrick Peterson	LSU	CB
9. Dallas Cowboys	Marcell Dareus	Alabama	DE
10. Wash. Redskins	Derek Sherrod	Miss. St.	OT
11.  Houston Texans	Prince Amukamara	Nebraska	CB
12. Minn. Vikings	Blaine Gabbert	Missouri	QB
13. Detroit Lions	Tyron Smith	USC	OT
14. St. Louis Rams	Julio Jones	Alabama	WR
15. Miami Dolphins	Mark Ingram	Alabama	RB
16. Jax. Jaguars	Adrian Clayborn	Iowa	DE
17. NE Patriots	J.J. Watt	Wisconsin	DE
18. SD Chargers	Aldon Smith	Missouri	OLB/DE
19. NY Giants	Akeem Ayers	UCLA	OLB
20. TB Bucs	Ryan Kerrigan	Purdue	DE
21. KC Chiefs	Anthony Castonzo	Boston College	OT
22. Indy Colts	Gabe Carimi	Wisconsin	OT
23. Philly Eagles	Brandon Harris	Miami (Fl)	CB
24. NO Saints	Mikel Leshoure	Illinois	RB
25. Sea. Seahawks	Jake Locker	Washington	QB
26. Bal. Ravens	Torrey Smith	Maryland	WR
27. Atlanta Falcons	Justin Houston	Georgia	DE
28. NE Patriots	Phil Taylor	Baylor	DL
29. NY Jets	Cam Heyward	Ohio State	DE
30. Chicago Bears	Corey Liuget	Illinois	DL
31. Pitt Steelers	Jimmy Smith	Colorado	CB
32. GB Packers	M. Wilkerson	Temple	DE

MNF: Vikings Perspective

Players to Watch:

QB Joe Webb - Hopefully we will be able to see rookie quarterback Joe Webb his first start in front of millions of people on Monday Night Football (Favre is now listed as questionable so he may end up starting). This will be a very daunting task for the young quarterback, but with the quarterback position up in the air, Webb has a chance to make an impression and possibly become the Vikings future quarterback. We will see if he can step up to the challenge. The one thing that Webb will bring is an unreal athleticism. Webb was going to be converted to a receiver when he was originally drafted, and has been featured as a return man this year. The Vikings should find ways to get Webb out of the pocket and allow him to use his athletic ability to make plays.

WR Sidney Rice - Rice was very close to being put on injured reserve this year, but came back in week 11 and has really impressed. It is surprising that Rice has been able to come in after not playing for so long and make plays. I expect him to continue to get better and help out his young quarterback.

DE Jared Allen - Remember when everyone was questioning what had happened to Allen after he started the season with 1 sack over 7 games? Well since then Allen has been on fire getting 8.5 sacks in the last 6 games. Look for Allen to have a huge game against QB Jay Cutler who has taken the most sacks in the NFL this year.

Key Matchup: Players vs. The frozen field - The game will most likely be played with snow falling and in below 20 degree temperatures. For a team that is used to playing in the friendly confines of a dome this will be a big test for them, especially because the Bears (who are the away team) are accustomed to this weather. Apparently the field is as hard as concrete so the tougher team is going to come out on top in this one.

Why the Vikings Will Win - The Bears are overrated. Yeah, they are 9-4, but 6 of those wins have come by 7 points are less and many of them against weaker competition. Last week RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead were able to go over 100+ yards in snowy conditions against the Bears defense. So I think Adrian Peterson, who no one would confuse with the two Patriots undrafted backs, can have a big game. I think that the Vikings can rally around a guy like Webb who can create offense by himself and bring a different elements to the quarterback position. One thing is for certain, if the Vikings get an early lead look for Jay Cutler to revert back to his turnover friendly form and throw at least 2 picks.

Prediction: Vikings 17 Bears 10

MNF Preview: Jets

Players to watch

LaDainian Tomlinson- He is averaging a CAREER best 6.1 ypg which is quite a statement by the 31 year-old who is trying to be one of the few running backs who have been able to be effective after the age of 30.

Darrelle Revis- In his first game back after tweaking his hamstring, Revis will get a chance at redemption against Randy “The Sloth” Moss after “The Sloth” embarrassed him on the injury inducing touchdown.

Santonio Holmes- The former Super Bowl MVP wide receiver makes his return from suspension, and looks to build upon the success of his first 1000 yard season last year.

Calvin Pace- The outside linebacker, who is returning from a foot injury, will also see his first action of the season this year and is a huge upgrade on defense as he is able to provide a consistent pass rush for the Jets as he was able to register 8 sacks in only 12 games last year.

Key Matchups

LT vs. Willliams Brothers- LT and the Jets #1 rushing attack will go up against the Vikings #9 defense against the rush. It’s a battle of strength vs. strength and it will be up to brothers Pat and Kevin Williams to make sure every yard LT gains is hard-earned.

Antonio Cromartie vs. The Vikings Wide Receivers- With the success against Moss filling in for Revis, it will be interesting to see whether the Jets elect to have Cromartie cover Moss or Percy Harvin for the majority of the game. Either way, Cromartie will see a lot of opportunities to make some big plays and intercept some questionable Brett Favre passes if the Jets defense is able to shut down Adrian Peterson.

Why the Jets Will Win- While the Vikings improved their chances with the addition of Randy Moss, the Jets are far too talented on both sides of the ball to lose this game. Mark Sanchez has done exactly what the Jets have asked of him over the last three games, and this is likely to continue against a Vikings defense that is ranked 23^rd against the pass, especially with the addition of Santonio Holmes. Both teams are excellent run defenders, but also are committed to running the ball so we could see a war of attrition as the teams grind it out. The Jets defense has excellent defensive backs that will likely cause nightmares for Brett Favre. The “Old Gunslinger however may be having more nightmares about the potential repercussions of alleged inappropriate messages sent to former Jets employee Jenn Sterger. If the NFL finds that Favre indeed sent the messages, his record consecutive start streak could be broken by a suspension of all things. This game will cement Favre’s regret of coming back for one more season.

Final Score: Jets 27, Vikings 13

NFL Breaking News: Randy Moss Trade

It's official and written in stone; Randy Moss is traded to the Minnesota Vikings in return for a 3rd round pick to the New England Patriots.

Most New England fans knew this was coming, and thus it has happened. Yet I feel this team is more prepared than ever to take this hit, as the Pats have slowly morphed into a 2 TE set team, with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez; Less focus is on Wes Welker and Randy Moss and more upon the system.




If you go back to last season, you will notice the Patriots also traded star defensive end, Richard Seymour for a 1st rounder, from Oakland in the upcoming 2011 draft. Also in the 2010 draft, New England sent their 3rd rounder for Carolina's 2nd rounder; all the trades executed, as well as the contract extension to Tom Brady, show a 5 year plan by the front office in New England. Gather as many high quality picks in the 2011 draft, infuse young talent over the next 2-3 years, and retain your franchise quarterback. The management for the Pats here is about as good as it gets. Here is a look at the list of picks for the patriots in 2011; note info is from NEpatriotsdraft.com

1st Round
1st Round (OAK – Richard Seymour)
2nd Round (CAR – 2010 3rd Round)
2nd Round
3rd Round

3rd Round (MIN - Randy Moss)
4th Round
4th Round (DEN – Laurence Maroney)
5th Round
6th Round (NO – David Thomas)

Picks traded away:

6th Round (DEN – Laurence Maroney)
7th Round (ATL – Quinn Ojinnaka)
Conditional Draft Pick – Round Unknown (KC – Jarrad Page)

With 2 picks in each of the first 4 rounds for the upcoming draft, the Patriots are poised to answer all questions about the hole left by Moss with a deep class of wide receivers. Also the Pats most glaring concern over the past few seasons is at cornerback, and this year's draft class is the best I have seen in years; with a number of top end playmaking corners to choose from in the upcoming draft, New England knew that and planned accordingly.

The Patriots could even invest in a big time corner in Patrick Peterson or a Randy Moss type receiver in AJ Green, by packaging a number of their of draft picks in a draft day deal.

The other side of the equation is very simple; Vikings want to win the Super Bowl now! This year! Brett Favre is in possibly his last season (yeah right!), and with Sidney Rice out for a majority of the season the Vikes were struggling mightily without a clear cut deep threat. With Randy Moss, Brett Favre has the best deep threat he has ever had in his 20 year career.

It will be interesting hows this pans out in 2010 for the Vikings, and how the draft rolls out in 2011 for the Pats, but nevertheless this has got to be the biggest trade of the season. And we're just getting started!