Welcome to The 3-4, a website dedicated to NFL analysis, predictions and recent events. We wrote 32 extensive team previews and will be writing about all things football throughout the year. We will be scouting players off game tape, evaluating them, predicting NFL and NCAA games, and much more! If you would like us to write about something in particular, let us know!

Friday, December 17, 2010

Best Ironman Moments of the Decade (pt.1)

Our recent debate about toughest players got me thinking about the gutsiest performances in the NFL. Here’s my list of the 10 most memorable ironman performances from the last 10 years.

(Note: This is not a list of toughest players, but greatest gutsy moments)

Click Here for Part II

10. Brett Favre's Concussion TD Pass

It's only fitting that Mr. 297 leads off this list. His career has been defined by his amazing toughness, and this particular play perfectly represents Favre's ironman attitude. In the 3rd quarter of a 2004 game vs. the New York Giants, Favre was hit hard by defensive lineman William Joseph. Favre sat out two plays before returning on 4th and 5 to throw a touchdown to receiver Javon Walker. What's remarkable about the play is that Favre had sustained a concussion on the previous hit, and later didn't even remember throwing the touchdown. With the new emphasis on player safety in the NFL, its safe to say we likely won't be seeing many more touchdown passes from quarterbacks who can't remember throwing them. While doctors forced Favre to sit out the rest of the game, his undying determination to win in spite of the potential health consequences is a part of Favre's legacy that will always be admired.

9. Ben Roethlisberger's Broken Nose

Big Ben's favorite person likely isn't Terry Bradshaw. After Ben's unfortunate bathroom incident, Bradshaw had this to say to him, "Would they pay any attention to you if you weren't, you know, who you are?' Of course not. Because I'm not that attractive, and neither is Ben." Ouch! Tell us how you really feel Terry. And to think this statement was made BEFORE this happened to Big Ben:

In all seriousness, however, Ben Roethlisberger is one of the toughest guys in the league. Not only did he come back from his life-threating motor-cycle accident, but he repeatedly gets hit a dozen times every single game. He is built like a lineman, which allows him to absorb more hits than the average QB, however his size was not able to prevent him from getting his nose broken by Haloti Ngata this year. Like a true warrior, Big Ben stayed in the game despite bleeding profusely and did not miss any plays. Maybe his effort earned him some positive points with Bradshaw? Probably not, but it was still a great tough-guy moment for Roethlisberger.

8. Steve Smith's Broken Arm Touchdown


In a 2009 game against the Giants, Carolina Panther receiver Steve Smith caught this pass while taking a huge hit from Safety Michael Johnson. After absorbing the monster hit, Smith was still able to get into the end zone for the touchdown and proceeded to celebrate while his teammate tugged on his limp broken arm. Steve Smith is one of the toughest players in the game, and his style of play has led to many injuries unfortunately like this one. He remains unafraid to go over the middle, and delivers his own powerful blows despite being a smaller guy. This plays shows Smith's true toughness and his a reminder of what sacrifices certain receivers make in order to make the catch.

Ryan Kerrigan Scouting Report



Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue, 6'4 263 lbs








Size / Strength: 9 – Great strength for his size (6'4 260 lbs), Kerrigan can bench press 475 lbs (in comparison, Da'Quan Bowers is said to be able to bench 385 lbs). Kerrigan has excellent upper body strength and anchors very well against the run and double teams. Kerrigan's unique skillset makes him appealing to any team, as he could play anywhere from a 3-4 OLB, 3-4 DE, or 4-3 DE, thanks to his great strength, speed, and pass rush ability.

Speed: 8 -  Good first step off the ball, Kerrigan has the lateral ability to scrape down the line and make plays away from his side. Speed on pass rush is evident as he can blow by elite blockers in the Big Ten with his fluidity in pass rush moves. Has the ability to speed rush around blockers, but also has ability to chase and tackle. Not elite but a faster athlete than one might assume.

Production: 10 Through 4 years at Purdue: 210 tackles, 33 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 1 interception. An absolute monster his senior year and one of the most dominant d-lineman in the country, Kerrigan racked up 13 sacks, 70 tackles en route to winning the Big Ten Defensive player of the year. 

Intangibles: 10 Showed extreme improvement from his junior year to his senior year; is a workout warrior and strong competitor. High end motor player that plays through all 4 quarters. Understands how to mentally prepare for games, very humble guy, and continually seeks to improve his game. In interviews, Kerrigan sounds very mature and certainly has a strong work ethic.

Run / Pass Skills: 9 – A polished pass rusher, Kerrigan has a large repertoire of elite pass rush moves. What's scary is during the offseason, he said he plans on adding more moves? Moreover Kerrigan uses his hands effectively in both run and pass situations, shedding blocks and keeping his shoulders squared to make plays to stop the run. Uses his arm length and leverage to get underneath his blocker's pads well, and shows a great understanding of how to beat his man in numerous ways.

Best fit: 4-3 DE, but also could play 3-4 DE because of his strength or 3-4 OLB because of his pass rush skills

X-Factor: How will he run at the combine, and does he have the athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Where he will be picked: Mid to Late First Round


Where he should be picked: Just outside of the Top Ten towards the middle of the First

NFL Comparison: Alex Brown, New Orleans Saints 



Ryan Kerrigan Highlight film


Ryan Kerrigan against Northwestern (2010)

Thursday, December 16, 2010

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15



Date & TimeFavoriteSpreadUnderdog
12/16 8:20 ETAt San Diego-10San Francisco




Date & TimeFavoriteSpreadUnderdog
12/19 1:00 ETAt St. Louis-3Kansas City
12/19 1:00 ETAt Tennessee-1.5Houston
12/19 1:00 ETAt Indianapolis-4.5Jacksonville
12/19 1:00 ETAt Carolina-2.5Arizona
12/19 1:00 ETAt Cincinnati PKCleveland
12/19 1:00 ETAt Miami-5.5Buffalo
12/19 1:00 ETAt NY Giants-3Philadelphia
12/19 1:00 ETAt Dallas-7Washington
12/19 1:00 ETAt Tampa Bay-4Detroit
12/19 1:00 ETAt Baltimore-2New Orleans
12/19 4:05 ETAtlanta-5.5At Seattle
12/19 4:15 ETAt Pittsburgh-4NY Jets
12/19 4:15 ETAt Oakland-8Denver
12/19 8:20 ETAt New England-14Green Bay



Monday Night Football Point Spread
12/20 8:35 ETChicago-7.5At Minnesota
(TCF Bank Stadium)

Slide, Aaron, Slide!


This ladies and gentlemen is exactly why all quarterbacks should slide unless we’re talking about a play with the game on the line. I love the attitude of Aaron Rodgers, he is obviously a true competitor, however he really hurt the team with this play. If he slides in this situation, Rodgers probably leads Green Bay to a win versus the lowly Lions and their playoff situation looks pretty good. Instead Rodgers gets a concussion, and the Packers have a tough road ahead of them and have to possibly play the Patriots without Rodgers. No running game + no Aaron Rodgers is pretty much an automatic loss.

Brett Favre ironically is a good example of a player who has stopped taking unnecessary injury risks. Early in Favre’s career he was very hard to take down as a QB, and wouldn’t slide very often. However after playing through many injuries and after his legs slowed down he realized his health was worth more to the team than an extra couple yards. Of course he still sometimes makes boneheaded decisions like trying to block cornerbacks on a direct snap (in a pre-season game no less), but for the most part he has done what he needed in order to stay healthy.

Now that Favre’s streak is over, Peyton Manning holds the current consecutive start streak for a QB. If you watch Peyton play, he almost always slides and is very easy to take down if a player gets his hands on him. Some people may question Manning’s toughness, but if he gets injured the team goes down as well. There is no point for elite QBs to be risking their health if the game is not on the line.

Players like Rodgers, and to a greater extent, Michael Vick, use their legs as weapons, which is large part of their success. I would encourage both players to continue to scramble and get yards when they can, but always to slide instead of taking a hit. Aaron Rodgers is a smart player and I believe he will learn from this situation, and hopefully other young competitive QB’s will learn from this as well.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Jets' Strength Coach Sal Alosi Suspended Indefinitely

Hey Sal, consider yourself lucky.  If I were the commissioner you would probably be banned for at least five years, if not for good.  With all of the talk about player safety all year, you are going to ORDER A WALL on a punt?  ARE YOU KIDDING ME?  I hope no one hires you for at least five years, if you are reinstated by then.

And have you never watched a game on TV?  There are cameras everywhere...in case you thought you could get away without being caught.

Real slick. 

Suspend him for life, agreed?

NFL and NFLPA Updates

Two stories broke today regarding current NFLPA issues:


ESPN - "NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell says there could be a new labor agreement in place by the Super Bowl "if we all commit to it and work hard at it."


What the hell are they waiting for?  I have seen these words come from so many people.  Why do they even deem it necessary to say that?  What have they been doing?


Who will win out in the end?
In my opinion, both the NFL and NFLPA should have a committee whose specific goal is to get this thing figured out.  They should be working overtime.  At least ten hours a day.  This does not just affect the owners and the players.  This affects the coaches. The local communities.  Local businesses will be affected.  


Also, there is a different report from different parties every week.  The NFLPA told players last week to save their last few game checks because a "lockout is imminent."  DeMaurice Smith said yesterday he is still preparing for a lockout.  Robert Kraft a few weeks ago said that he was optimistic that a deal would be reached.  


This is all a game, everyone.  Each side is trying to manipulate the public's opinion.  There is certainly some gamesmanship going on here.  If they say one thing to the public, they can anticipate the move and strategies from the other side.


Don't read into anything until a deal is reached.


ESPN - "NFL players union head DeMaurice Smith held a conference call Tuesday with agents to discuss possibly changing the certification process and how agents are disciplined for violating rules."


There needs to be a MUCH bigger sense of urgency.  I don't think they should even consider looking at how agents are certified.  Who cares.  In this culture you can take the most honorable, smartest people and the only way to compete is to cheat.  


College football players get showered in money, gifts, cars, houses for their families, pretty much anything you can imagine an 18-22 year old kid would want.  It's outrageous.  


I, along with Jimmy, believe that NCAA football players should be paid.  However, right now the rule is that they aren't allowed to.  Yet the enforcement policies are ridiculous.


Any 18 year old kid who comes from a low-income background is going to take a nice check from a booster or an agent.  It's human nature.  Sure, there are a couple that may not take it.  Regardless, it makes no sense that the agents are HARDLY punished in these situations.  


I would love to see the NFL and NCAA collaborate and come up with a strictly enforced punishment system.  Something where it is not 100% frowned up to tell a person of authority when something happens against the rules.  


Regardless of what they could and would figure out, there is currently such a disconnect between the NCAA and NFLPA, something must be done.  NOW.  Please.  Save 


On the topic, watch ESPN's 30 for 30 on SMU football.  I don't think things are much different nowadays...

Is There Any Integrity Left In Football?


I honestly don’t know anymore. It seems like every week there is something being done by the NFL or NCAA (along with other professional sports) which is not in the best interests of the sport, but rather the best interests of owner’s wallets.

Take how the NCAA has treated Cam Newton, for example. He obviously violated NCCA rules, yet he was somehow reinstated before anyone even knew he was declared ineligible. The whole situation was seemingly dealt with behind closed doors, and now Auburn gets to play Oregon in the National Championship. God forbid a team like TCU got into the big game and hurt the TV ratings.

Such a ruling opens up Pandora’s Box where anyone can seemingly shop an athlete around as long as the athlete has no knowledge of it. The NCAA will likely close up that “loophole” for next year, so the message sent here is you can’t break NCAA rules unless you’re on a team from a Big 6 conference that is in contention for the National Championship.

I personally think college athletes should be able to get paid, however if the NCAA is going to continue pretending that integrity is the reason behind preventing athletes from accepting money, they should at least enforce their rules fairly otherwise it only hurts those that do play by the rules.

Instead, the NCAA keeps making decisions based on money, while hiding behind excuses of acting in the players’ best interest. Everyone from the average fan to the President of the United States wants a playoff system, yet the excuses we hear are that they don’t want to risk players’ health by playing extra games or hurting their studies during finals. Of course, the true reason is the lucrative bowl contracts that teams receive, and while this isn’t their public motive, it’s the one that truly matters.

The NFL is not much better when it comes to integrity and Commissioner Roger Goodell is one of the biggest problems. Goodell’s decisions are supposed to be in the best interests of the NFL, yet really they are based on what’s best for making the owners money.

The NFL historically hates making rule changes in the middle of the season. Even though Calvin Johnson's Week 1 catch in the end zone was not a ruled a touchdown even though almost everyone agreed it should have been, the NFL will not review its catch rules until after the season. However Roger Goodell did decide to start punishing heavily for helmet to helmet contact during the season, leading to a gross discrepancy in what hits are penalized. It’s all the in the name of safety, yet the most profitable players (QB’s) get far more protection than defensive players. Even the QB’s are treated differently, as the big money makers Manning and Brady seemingly get all of the calls, while other QB’s don’t get such preferential treatment. The most ironic part of this situation is that Goodell is pushing for an 18-game season, which is likely more harmful to player health than helmet-to-helmet hits.

The NFL replay system is a joke as well compared the NCAA one. Apparently the NFL believes it’s the coach’s job to correct officials’ mistakes for them. It would be very easy for the NFL to fix their replay system, but there is no monetary incentive for them doing so and therefore it’s not a high priority for Goodell.

These are only a few examples of the hypocrisy of the NCAA and NFL. I know football is a business, but it’s extremely frustrating watching greed constantly hurt such a great game. I am just hoping that maybe there are some people in the NCAA and owners in the NFL who do actually care about the game and the fans, and make decisions for the good of football, not just when the price is right. Until then, players' and fans' wishes will be an afterthought, and the game will continue to suffer as a result.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

D-Line vs. QB

Here is a video from Mike and Mike on ESPN.

Very interesting debate, but in all honestly an impossible one to win.  Playing quarterback and playing defensive line are almost like two different games.  "D-Linemen get hit every play, they are tougher than quarterbacks."  "Sure, a defensive lineman gets hit every play, but does he ever get hit with his arms in the air and his ribs exposed?"

As a former quarterback I think you have to be tougher to play quarterback.  The severity of shots you can and will take, unexpectedly, is scary.  You are literally a target for these defensive linemen.  Their goal on roughly half of the plays is to intimidate and pound the opposing quarterback.

Now, that is not to say it takes some serious balls to play defensive line.  I think, apart from running backs, defensive linemen are probably the most likely to experience head trauma, at least later in life.  They experience repetitive blows to the head.  Now they may not be severe all the time, but play in and play out they are getting whacked.  But are they ever asked to have a blitzing linebacker run through them full speed when they aren't ready?  I don't think so.  And then expected to bounce back like nothing happened?




Quarterbacks are tougher than d-linemen, agreed?

Agreed?

Monday, December 13, 2010

Week 14 2011 NFL Mock Draft

Hey everybody, The 3-4 will post an updated mock following each of the following weeks through the rest of the 2010 NFL season and playoffs in order to update readers with draft stock of players and the needs of NFL teams.

Explanations for picks will not be written down, rather we encourage reader participation in commenting your thoughts/ideas/suggestions/problems with our decision making. Also if you see any of the writers for The 3-4 online, we have a new chat box for instant communication. Thanks again readers for your help and support as we are growing continually. 
Round 1
1.            Carolina (1-11) Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2.            Detroit (2-10) Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
3.            Cincinnati (2-10) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
4.            Buffalo (2-10) Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
5.            Arizona (3-9) Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas
6.            Denver (3-9) Von Miller, OLB, TAMU
7.            San Francisco (4-8) A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
8.            Dallas (4-8) Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
9.            Tennessee (5-7) Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
10.        Washington (5-7) Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
11.        Houston (5-7) Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
12.        Minnesota (5-7) Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
13.        Cleveland (5-7) Robert Quinn, DE, UNC
14.        San Diego (6-6) Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
15.        New England - from Oakland (6-6) Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
16.        Seattle (6-6) Jake Locker, QB, Washington
17.        Indianapolis (6-6) Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
18.        Miami (6-6) Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
19.        Tampa Bay (7-5) Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida
20.        New York Giants (8-4) Bruce Carter, OLB, UNC
21.        St. Louis* (6-6) Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
22.        Jacksonville (7-5*) Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
23.        Kansas City (8-4*) Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
24.        Chicago* (9-3) Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
25.        Baltimore* (8-4) Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
26.        Philadelphia* (8-4) Stefen Wisniewski, OG/C, Penn State
27.        Green Bay* (8-4) Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
28.        Pittsburgh* (9-3) Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
29.        New Orleans* (9-3) Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
30.        New York Jets* (9-3) Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma
31.        Atlanta* (10-2) Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
32.        New England* (10-2) Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

Stanford QB Andrew Luck Lays Out Shareece Wright After a Fumble

This is interesting.  First look at the effort by Peyton Manning, one of the greatest QBs of all time:



Absolutely no effort on one of his FOUR interceptions for touchdowns in two weeks.  Now check out potential number one draft pick, Stanford QB Andrew Luck:



I always thought that when you throw an interception, you make the tackle.  In most situations, you just cost your team a chance to score.  Now go do something about it.  Whenever I threw an interception, which was more than I wanted to, I felt like I could take out my anger by making the tackle.  Now, I can't say I ever hit anyone as hard as Andrew Luck did, but it always felt pretty good to make the tackle.

With all of the skills that Andrew Luck brings with him, seeing this says an AWFUL lot about his character.  To be a QB in the NFL you must play with a passion, and that is 100% what Andrew Luck shows.

Does playing a sport professionally take some of the competitiveness out of players?  I always have felt that college players tend to play harder than professional ones.  Particularly in football and basketball.  Sure you have those guys like Ray Lewis and Troy Polamalu, but a lot of professional athletes get soft when they start making millions.

MNF: Texans Perspective


Players to Watch:

RB Arian Foster - Foster has had an unbelievable season so far compiling a league high 1230 yards on the ground and another 479 yards through the air. The second year undrafted back has transformed the Texans' offense from a one dimensional passing attack (ranked 30th in rushing last year) to a balanced dynamic offense. The Texans need a big game out of Foster tonight if they want a chance at winning the game.

DE Mario Williams - The 6'6" 295 lb defensive end has everything you look for in a defensive playmaker. Williams has had some big games this year, but has also disappeared at times. The Texans need Williams to play big and take some pressure off of the extremely porous secondary.

WR Jacoby Jones - When you play the Texans all the focus is generally on WR Andre Johnson, and rightfully so, as Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. With S Ed Reed and the Ravens' secondary focusing primarily on Johnson, look for Jones to possibly have a break out game receiving or on special teams, where he returns both punts and kickoffs.

Key Matchup: QB Joe Flacco vs Texans Secondary - To say the Texans' secondary has been miserable may be an understatement. They have been carved up by pretty much every quarterback they have faced. Flacco is a good quarterback, but if they let him put up MVP type numbers they will not have a very good chance in this game considering how good the Ravens defense has been. The Texans front seven needs to pressure Flacco (he has been sacked 17 times in the last 5 games) and the secondary needs to step up and make plays when it matters tonight.

Why the Texans Will Win - Their offense can be as explosive as any. The Texans have shown this year that they can go up against some of the best defenses (Jets, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders) and still put up points. If QB Matt Schaub and their other playmakers can come out and play to their potential they will be able to score on the Ravens. The Ravens are more talented overall, but the Texans have some great individual talents such as Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, and Brian Cushing, all who can just take over a game. They need some big plays from each of them tonight.

Prediction: Texans 24 Ravens 20

MNF: Ravens Perspective

Players to Watch

QB Joe Flacco- He has been on fire recently, and even had a solid game against the great Steelers defense last week. Flacco and Matt Ryan were drafted in the same class and while Ryan gets a lot of the attention, Flacco is not far behind him in terms of talent. Tonight he faces the worst defense in the league, so you can expect another great game from Flacco as the Ravens will air it out against the Texans.

S Ed Reed- Despite only playing in 6 games this year, veteran Ed Reed has made a large impact on the team with 4 interceptions. Reed and Lewis are the leaders of the Ravens defense and they will be needed to stop a Texans offense that has no problems with scoring. Reed will look to neutralize Andre Johnson by providing extra help over the middle and capitalizing on any mistakes that Matt Schaub makes.

LB Terrell Suggs- Averaging over 5 sacks in his last 5 games, Suggs has become a nightmare for opposing QBs this season. He is currently playing some of his best football since his tremendous rookie season. Schaub usually gets decent protection from his offensive lineman, but they will need to step up tonight if they hope to contain Suggs. Turnovers and sacks are the best ways to stop a high powered offense so Suggs must keep the pressure on Schaub throughout the game.

Key Matchup: DT Haloti Ngata v. RB Arian Foster– In a battle of strength versus strength, the top rusher in the league will face one of the best tackles. Foster is averaging over 100 yards per game, but those yards will be hard to come by against the Ravens stellar rush defense. The 350 pound behemoth takes up a lot of space in the middle and moves extremely well for a big man. Ngata is an asset to both the pass and rush defense. If Ngata can stuff Foster in the backfield, the Texans will lose their play-action ability, which is a key to their success.

Why the Ravens Will Win- 3 of their 4 losses were to the Patriots, Steelers, and Falcons, all elite teams, and they haven’t lost a game by more than 5 points. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and while their offense has struggled at times, playing the Houston Texans is a great recipe for righting the ship. Houston has lost 6 of their last 8, and their playoff hopes are slim at best. The Ravens are clearly the better team and have more to play for in this game and will come away with the W.

Prediction: Ravens 31, Texans 20