Saturday, January 8, 2011
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Wild Card Weekend
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
1/8 4:30 ET New Orleans -10 At Seattle
1/8 8:05 ET At Indianapolis -2 NY Jets
1/9 1:00 ET Baltimore -3 At Kansas City
1/9 4:30 ET At Philadelphia -2.5 Green Bay
The 3-4 Writers' Predictions




Friday, January 7, 2011
Playoff Preview: Seattle Seahawks
Offensive MVP: WR Mike Williams
No running back on the Seahawks rushed for more than 600 yards, and Matt Hasselbeck had one of his worst years of his career, so by default Mike Williams is this team’s offensive MVP. If it weren’t for Michael Vick, Williams would likely be the comeback player of the year. Williams had more receiving yards this year than his first 3 years in the league combined. Considering he hasn’t played in a game since 2007 prior to this season, that is quite an accomplishment. Pete Carrol saw something in his former player during his days at USC, and if he didn’t take a chance on Williams, his NFL career would likely be finished. It is nice to see someone who almost threw their career away comeback to really help their team out. If it weren’t for Williams, this team doesn’t make it to the playoffs.
Defensive MVP: DE Chris Clemons
With a career high 11 sacks, Clemons put in a great performance this year. While the rest of the defense was busy giving up chunks of yards, Clemons was constantly putting pressure on opposing QB’s and came to play every game. He is proving to the Eagles that it was a mistake to let him go, and with the Seahawks rebuilding defense, there is one position that the Seahawks don’t have to worry about.
Best Win: Week 17 - Against the St. Louis Rams
You can say all you want about the Seahawks 7-9 record, but at least they didn’t back into the playoffs. Facing a do or die situation in the last week of the season, the Seahawks defeated a decent Rams team. It was the much maligned defense that stepped up in the game, holding the Rams to only 2 field goals. It was uncertain whether a team that had given up 15 of more points in each of its losses could handle the pressure of what was essentially a playoff game, but they took care of business and now have a home playoff game as a reward.
Rookie Grade: B+
With 2 early first round picks, the Seahawks had a great opportunity to infuse young talent into this team. It looks like they have succeeded with S Earl Thomas and LT Russell Okung. Okung has been limited to 10 games with injuries, but is healthy now and looks like their LT of the future. Earl Thomas, who many people thought to be the most NFL ready player, put in a solid rookie campaign with 5 interceptions. There is always a lot of pressure on a team that has early first round picks to avoid busts, and it looks like the Seahawks have done just that with Okung and Thomas.
How Can They Make It To The Super Bowl: Perfect Play and Luck
The Seahawks aren’t embarrassed to be in the playoffs nor should they be. No playoff system is perfect and if 7-9 teams were making the postseason every year then a change would obviously be needed, but there is no need to overact to what seems to be a fluke occurrence. The NFC West has a lot of young talent, and there’s no reason they can’t dramatically improve in the upcoming years. With that being said, reaching the Super Bowl is going to be a Cinderella task for the Seahawks. Neither their offense nor defense is very good, and they play terrible football on the road. They might be able to pull off a tremendous upset against the Saints this weekend, but it’s hard to think this team can beat either the Falcons or Bears on the road. If they were to make it to the Super Bowl it might be the most improbable story in recent memory, but I just can’t envision that happening.
Playoff Preview: Baltimore Ravens

Offensive MVP: RB Ray Rice and WR Anquan Boldin
The Ravens offense has been inconsistent this year, but when they are playing well it usually means Boldin and Rice are having good games. Rice has really become a workhorse for the Ravens, he was responsible for over 34% of the Ravens offense this year rushing for 1200 yards and adding 556 yards on 63 receptions. Boldin may have had a down year personally, but he really opened up the Ravens offense for other players. Boldin lead the team with 64 receptions 837 yards and 7 TDs. He had a slow second half but he is too much of a playmaker to continue his rut into the playoffs.
Defensive MVP: Too Many to Choose From
Who do you give it to here? You could go with Ray Lewis who seems to be ageless, he leads the team in tackles and is the ultimate motivator. Ed Reed missed six games due to injury then comes back and does not miss a beat and ends up leading he NFL in interceptions with 8. Haloti Ngata had 63 tackles and 5.5 sacks as a 6'4" 350 lbs. lineman. He is an absolute beast and has to be in the top 3 for best defensive lineman in the NFL. Terrell Suggs continues to be a terror off the edge leading the team with 11 sacks. You really can't go wrong picking anyone of these guys.
Best Win: Week 15 - Against the New Orleans Saints
The former Super Bowl Champion Saints came into this game on a 6 game winning streak and they looked like they were back to their old form. In this game the Ravens showed how good of a team they can be when they play well. They ran the ball, were efficient in the passing game, and made big stops against a great offense when they needed them. When the Ravens are playing well in all three phases of the game, there is no team better in the NFL.
Rookie Grade: D+
The Ravens already had a lot of depth so it was a long shot for any rookie to get a lot of early playing time. There top pick, LB Sergio Kindle, who I thought was going to be a very good player, never saw the field after suffering an off the field injury. DT Terrance Cody played sparingly but has been a disappointment thus far. Tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are stuck behind Todd Heap but could end up being good players. The fifth round pick WR David Reed may be there best pick he has been a big help on special teams.
How Can They Make It To The Super Bowl: Ray Rice and Defensive Turnovers
Rice is the key to the Ravens offense. Last year Ray Rice and the Ravens went into Foxborough and dominated the Patriots and Tom Brady (who has all sorts of records while playing at home) like few teams have done in the past 10 years. Rice was able to rush for 159 yards on 22 carries and the defense caused four turnovers. The best stat about that game is that they won despite Flacco passing for only 34 yards with an interception. With Flacco playing better and having new weapons, the Ravens just need Rice to step it up for the playoff run and the defense to change the momentum of games with their big turnovers.


Thursday, January 6, 2011
Playoffs Preview: Philadelphia Eagles
Asante Samuel and Desean Jackson |
Trent Cole finished 2nd on the Eagles defense in total tackles, and first in sacks with 10.0 sacks in 2010. Cole's experience has helped with young Brandon Graham's progression in 2010 (albeit Graham suffered a season ending injury versus the Cowboys, Graham had a successful 1st year in my opinion.). Cole will have to be a disruptive force against the Packers this wild card weekend, getting hits and pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers.
Michael Vick inside the huddle |
Playoff Preview: Chicago Bears
Offensive MVP: RB Matt Forte
Forte is a versatile back whose impact is felt in both the running and passing game. He reached 1000 yards rushing this year and also had 500 yards receiving. While Cutler’s dedication to preventing turnovers this season greatly helped the Bears win the division, Forte’s play has been crucial to the offense especially over the 2nd half of the season.
Defensive MVP: DE Julius Peppers
The Bears got their money’s worth by adding Peppers over the offseason. His presence on the team has elevated the defense and is reminding people of the Bears defense that led the team to the Super Bowl in 2007. He had 8 sacks this year which was lower than expected, but constant double teams allowed for teammate DT Israel Idonije to register 8 sacks as well. While LB Brian Urlacher remains the team’s heart and soul, the addition of Peppers had made all the difference for this Bears team.
Best Win: Week 12 - Against Philadelphia Eagles
It wasn’t too long ago that most people (myself included) thought the Bears weren’t a very good team, and likely would not make the playoffs. Before the game against the Eagles, their record stood at 7-3 and had a very tough schedule ahead of them. But against the Eagles, the Bears showed that they weren’t pretenders and defeated a tough Philadelphia team. Cutler had a great day, throwing for 4 touchdowns with no interceptions, and Forte had a 100 yard day on the ground. The defense, while not spectacular, did just enough to stop Vick, and the team held on for a 31-26 victory. The win gave them sole possession for the NFC North and the Bears never looked back.
Rookie Grade: C-
With no picks in the first 2 rounds and a relatively healthy year for the Bears, the rookies did not get to see a lot of playing time. 3rd round pick S Major Wright has played sparingly, but the big surprise has been the amount of playing time given to 7th round pick RT J’Marcus Webb. The Bears have him as their starting RT, and while his play has been very inconsistent, he has shown that he might have what it takes to be a decent starter in the league. The Bears have a terrible pass blocking line, so Webb has a chance to be a starter again next year for the Bears, but he will definitely have to keep improving to show he is better than the typical 7th rounder.
How Can They Make It To The Super Bowl: Jay Cutler limiting his turnovers
Jay Cutler has made improvements in Mike Martz’s offense, but he still throws too many interceptions to feel confident about this team’s chances to make it to the Super Bowl. In the Bears’ 5 losses, Cutler has thrown 9 picks, compared to only 7 picks in their 11 wins. Getting Cutler to make smart decisions will be key for this team if they want to advance to the Super Bowl, and with a solid running game and one of the better defenses in the league, there is no reason this team can’t get there.
Playoffs Preview: Indianapolis Colts
Playoff Preview: New York Jets

Offensive MVP: WR Santonio Holmes
After missing the first four games of the season, Holmes was amazingly able to come back and fit into a new offense with the Jets. Holmes gave QB Mark Sanchez an instant security blanket, a guy he could rely on in big situations. The former Steeler has always had flair for the dramatic, and has been absolutely clutch this year, helping the Jets win three close games in a row in dramatic fashion. Holmes cooled off a bit at the end of the season, and everyone will remember the big drop he had against Miami, but expect the former Super Bowl MVP to have a big playoff run.
Defensive MVP: LB David Harris
No player has really stuck out this year, and a strong case can be made that S Jim Leonard was their defensive MVP before he went down with a season ending injury in week 12. The best player this year is probably the most unsung hero on the Jets defense. Harris is a consistent player that leads the team in tackles with 99 to go along with 3 sacks and a forced fumble.
Best Win: Week 15 at Pittsburgh
After being blown out by the Patriots 45-3, and then losing a close match-up against the Dolphins, many thought the Jets may have an epic collapse and miss the playoffs. Coming out and beating a very good Steelers team in a hostile environmental was a huge win. They showed a lot of toughness and character in this game. Their team could have easily made excuses and come out and played flat. Instead they rallied and showed those two losses were more of an aberration. If the Jets can beat the Colts in the first round of the playoffs, they will most likely end up facing the Steelers again and they know they can match-up with them even on the road.
Rookie Grade: D-
The Jets only had 4 draft picks but none of them had an impact this year. The Jets expected big things from first round pick CB Kyle Wilson but after starting the first two games, he basically disappeared and has not really had much impact this year. Second round pick G Vlad Ducasse had a chance to start at guard where the Jets were very weak, but was not able to win a starting position. RB Joe McKnight, who the Jets kept over RB Danny Woodhead, has been disappointing and did not really see the field until the end of the season. Overall, a underwhelming rookie class.
How Can They Make It To The Super Bowl: Mark Sanchez
Quarterbacks like Rex Grossman, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson have shown that you don't necessarily need to be a star quarterback to lead your team to the super bowl. The Jets need Sanchez to be smart with the football and manage the game. The Jets have a lot of talented players around him that can make plays on their own, but when Sanchez has a bad game like he did against the Patriots and Dolphins in week 13 and 14, he gives his team no chance to win. The Jets have struggled with extra time off (lost first game of season, game after bye week, and long lead up to the Patriots game), and considering most of their starters sat out last game, it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.


Playoffs Preview: New Orleans Saints
Jimmy Graham versus TB, injured his ankle |
Drew Brees must play at a similarly high level as he did last postseason, cut down on interceptions, and ultimately put the team on his back. Brees' play will determine the success/failure of this Saints offense in the 2011 postseason. All in all, its tough to bet against a competitor or winner like Drew Brees. This Saints team, despite its weaknesses, has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and certainly has a shot at returning to the Super Bowl.
UPDATE (1-6-11 7:00 p.m. CT) : Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas placed on IR, ending both players seasons officially.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Playoff Preview: Green Bay Packers
Offensive MVP: QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has shown in his 3rd year starting that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Packers’ running game is almost non-existent, and there have been a couple games where Rodgers has actually been the leading rusher. He lost one of his favorite targets in Jermichael Finley earlier this year, but he is so good at spreading the ball around that it hasn’t fazed him in the least. He came up a little bit shy of becoming the first quarterback to throw for 4000 yards in his first three seasons, and would have the record if it weren’t for the concussion that knocked him out of one game and kept him out of another. The Packers have persevered through a lot of injuries this year, but one man who is truly indispensible for the Packers is Rodgers.
Defensive MVP: LB Clay Matthews III
Perhaps the DPOY, Matthews is every bit as indispensible as Rodgers. Matthews never takes a play off, and plays with the level of intensity of Troy Polamalu. He’s a nightmare for opposing QB’s, and defensive coordinator Dom Capers always makes sure that offenses will have no idea where Matthews is coming from. In just his 2nd year, Clay Matthews looks to be an absolute force in the league for years to come.
Best Win: Week 16 - Against the Giants
While Green Bay’s first official playoff game is against the Eagles on Sunday, the Packers essentially have been playing playoff football the last two weeks as both games were must wins in order to get into the playoffs. The Packers absolutely dominated this game on both sides of the ball, defeating a very talented Giants team. Green Bay was great at creating turnovers on defense, and Aaron Rodgers and company took care of the rest on offense. When Green Bay is clicking on all cylinders they are extremely tough to beat, which they showed in this game.
Rookie Grade: B
With all the injuries to the Packers, it would have been impossible for them to get into the playoffs without significant contributions from their rookies. Their 1st round pick Bryan Bulaga has not been outstanding, but has done his part to solidify a line that was absolutely terrible at protecting Rodgers last year. He will continue to improve, but the jury is still out on whether he can be the LT of the Packers in the future, or if he is better suited at RT. SS Morgan Burnett showed promise when he won the starting job in preseason, but a midseason injury cut his rookie year short. TE Andrew Quarless has been inconsistent at best, but has stepped up at times as he tries to fill the void left by the injury to Finley. RB James Starks didn’t get off the injury list until midseason, and while he looks like the Packers best running back, injuries continue to keep him from getting carries. Where the Packers did their best work was late in the draft. 7th rounder defensive end CJ Wilson, and undrafted CB Sam Shields and LB Frank Zombo have all played significant parts in the Packer defense and have played better than could have been expected. Overall this looks like a promising draft for the Packers, but injuries have made it tough to tell just how good this group really is.
How Can They Make It To The Super Bowl: Rodgers and Dom Capers
Mike McCarthy tends to outthink himself at times with the offense, but the best game plan is just to lean on Rodgers ability. Completely abandoning the running game is usually not the smartest game plan, but if it’s not working early, it is better to just let Aaron Rodgers do his thing like in the playoffs last year against the Cardinals. Rodgers has enough scrambling ability to make up for a lack of running game. On the defensive side, Dom Capers is the key for the Packers. He is great at designing game plans around the Packers’ defensive stars, Clay Matthews and Sir Charles Woodson. It will be up to him to get creative on defense as he has been doing all year, forcing teams to go away from their original game plans. The Packers have been great against the pass this year, considering how awful they were at times last year. Green Bay is so good at forcing fumbles that they need to make opposing teams try to beat them on the ground, and focus on preventing big plays through the air. With Rodgers and Capers, the Packers have a decent shot at making it to the Super Bowl.
Adrian Clayborn Scouting Report
Best fit: 3-4 DE (also strong 4-3 DE or 4-3 DT)
X-Factor: Can he improve his cardiovascular endurance, and be a 4 quarter type player at the next level? His tendency to fade in games, attributed to his lack of stamina, must be addressed. Also Clayborn must improve his pass rush skills beyond the power rush. Lacks the effective hand usage to be an instant impact player; he will not get by in the NFL with pure athleticism and raw strength- needs to develop as a pass rusher.
Where he will be picked: First Round
NFL Comparison: Glenn Dorsey, Kansas City Chiefs
Adrian Clayborn, 2010 Orange Bowl MVP Highlights vs. Ga. Tech
Adrian Clayborn versus 2011 Draft prospect, Wisconsin LT, Gabe Carimi
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Playoffs Preview: Kansas City Chiefs
