Welcome to The 3-4, a website dedicated to NFL analysis, predictions and recent events. We wrote 32 extensive team previews and will be writing about all things football throughout the year. We will be scouting players off game tape, evaluating them, predicting NFL and NCAA games, and much more! If you would like us to write about something in particular, let us know!

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Twitter Live Mock Draft

Nick Fairley to the Titans?
Here are the results from tonight's live mock draft. @EugeneStasakJr, @JoeGoodberry, @Chris_Lomas_, and myself @ABXXV25 got together and divided the draft picks amongst each other. The order of picks; Joe, then me, then Eugene, Chris, and then back to Joe, etc…

The biggest faller in round 1 has to be Nick Fairley, with Tennessee getting the best value pick of the draft at pick #8. The biggest reach might be Ryan Mallett at pick #12, but this should not surprise people if it becomes reality on April 28th. With Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton already drafted, Minnesota still is in need of a franchise quarterback and could be forced into taking their man. Waiting until round 2 might be too risky, as the talent will drop off after Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and Colin Kaepernick.

Marvin Austin lasted
until the end of the 2nd round.
Hopefully tomorrow we will draft for round 2, and I will update accordingly…

Update 2-25 Wow there really is a huge talent pool to choose from. The likes of Stephen Paea, Cam Heyward, and even Jon Baldwin were available during round 2. San Francisco got their quarterback of the future in Christian Ponder. Marvin Austin was the final pick in the 2nd round. No real runs on any position occurred in the second round, and many teams fulfilled big needs. Philadelphia got a lot more talented at the offensive tackle; Kansas City brought youth to their growing 3-4 defense; Baltimore was even able to get faster at wide receiver, while also drafting a future replacement to Ray Lewis. Anyways, take a look at who your favorite team drafted, and feel free to comment below and let me know what you think.

Round 1
NFL Team
Player
School
Position
1. Carolina Panthers
Da’Quan Bowers
Clemson
DE
2. Denver Broncos
Patrick Peterson
LSU
CB
3.  Buffalo Bills
Cam Newton
Auburn
QB
4. Cincinatti Bengals
Robert Quinn
UNC
OLB/DE
5. Arizona Cardinals
Blaine Gabbert
Missouri
QB
6. Cleveland Browns
A.J. Green
Georgia
WR
7. San Fran. 49ers
Von Miller
TAMU
OLB
8. Tennessee Titans
Nick Fairley
Auburn
DT
9. Dallas Cowboys
Tyron Smith
USC
OT
10. Wash. Redskins
Marcell Dareus
Alabama
DE
11.  Houston Texans
Prince Amukamara
Nebraska
CB
12. Minn. Vikings
Ryan Mallett
Arkansas
QB
13. Detroit Lions
Jimmy Smith
Colorado
CB
14. St. Louis Rams
Julio Jones
Alabama
WR
15. Miami Dolphins
Mark Ingram
Alabama
RB
16. Jax. Jaguars
Cam Jordan
Cal
DE
17. NE Patriots
Aldon Smith
Missouri
DE
18. SD Chargers
J.J. Watt
Wisconsin
DE
19. NY Giants
Gabe Carimi
Wisconsin
LT
20. TB Bucs
Adrian Clayborn
Iowa
DE
21. KC Chiefs
Phil Taylor
Baylor
NT
22. Indy Colts
Corey Liuget
Illinois
DT
23. Philly Eagles
Anthony Castonzo
BC
LT
24. NO Saints
Ryan Kerrigan
Purdue
DE
25. SEA Seahawks
Jake Locker
Washington
QB
26. Bal. Ravens
Torrey Smith
Maryland
WR
27. Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Rudolph
Notre Dame
TE
28. NE Patriots
Derek Sherrod
Miss. State
OT
29. NY Jets
M. Wilkerson
Temple
DE
30. Chicago Bears
Nate Solder
Colorado
LT
31. Pitt Steelers
Brandon Harris
Miami (Fl)
CB
32. GB Packers
Justin Houston
Georgia
OLB

Round 2
NFL Team
Player
School
Position
1. NE Patriots
S. Wisniewski
Penn St.
OG/C
2. Buffalo Bills
Stephen Paea
Oregon St.
DE
3. Cincinatti Bengals
Mike Pouncey
Florida
OG/C
4. Denver Broncos
C. Ballard
Iowa
DL
5. Cleveland Browns
Cam Heyward
Ohio State
DE
6. Arizona Cardinals
Ben Ijalana
Villanova
OT/OG
7. Tennessee Titans
Akeem Ayers
UCLA
OLB
8. Dallas Cowboys
Rahim Moore
UCLA
FS
9. Wash. Redskins
Jon Baldwin
Pitt
WR
10. Houston Texans
Brooks Reed
Arizona
OLB/DE
11. Minn. Vikings
Drake Nevis
LSU
DT
12. Detroit Lions
Martez Wilson
Illinois
ILB
13. San Fran. 49ers
C. Ponder
Florida St.
QB
14. Denver Broncos
Danny Watkins
Baylor
OT/OG
15. St. Louis Rams
Aaron Williams
Texas
CB
16. Oakland Raiders
B. Burton
Utah
CB
17. Jax Jaguars
L. Hankerson
Miami (Fl)
WR
18. SD Chargers
Titus Young
Boise St.
WR
19. TB Bucs
Quinton Carter
Oklahoma
FS
20. NY Giants
M. LeShoure
Illinois
RB
21. Indy Colts
Rodney Hudson
Florida St.
OG/C
22. Philly Eagles
Marcus Cannon
TCU
OT/OG
23. KC Chiefs
Jabaal Sheard
Pitt
OLB/DE
24. NO Saints
Mason Foster
Washington
OLB
25. SEA Seahawks
Kenrick Ellis
Villanova
DT
26. Bal. Ravens
K. Sheppard
LSU
ILB
27. Atlanta Falcons
Ryan Williams
Virginia Tech
RB
28. NE Patriots
Randall Cobb
Kentucky
WR
29. SD Chargers
Ahmad Black
Florida
FS/SS
30. Chicago Bears
Jurrell Casey
USC
DT
31. Pitt Steelers
O. Franklin
LSU
OT
32. GB Packers
Marvin Austin
UNC
DL

Colin Kaepernick Scouting Report

Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada, 6'5 225 lbs

SKILLS

Don't these 2 QBs just look similar?
Size/Arm Strength: 9.5 - Extremely gifted as an athlete, Colin Kaepernick's long and lean frame is reminiscent of Vince Young, former University of Texas Longhorn and current NFL player. Needs to add some weight to his skinny frame, but nonetheless he has ideal size for a quarterback in the NFL.

Kaepernick competed at the annual summer passing camp, the Peyton Manning Passing Academy last summer in preparations for his senior season, catching the eye of former Super Bowl winner and Pro-Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning and younger brother Eli Manning, also a Super Bowl winer and Pro-Bowler. The two brothers "giggled" at how much velocity and zip there was to Colin Kaepernick's ball. His arm strength might've been the most impressive they had ever seen. These are two of the NFL's best saying this. 


Even more so following the Senior Bowl, Colin Kaepernick's ability really came into national focus. 





Colin K. impressed the Manning Brothers




Here is what NFL Draft Scout said following their evaluation of Colin Kaepernick's senior bowl week, 
"Displaying the arm strength, accuracy and touch to be an early round pick, Kaepernick played side by side with Washington's Jake Locker... and was the more impressive thrower." 
My position on Jake Locker is well documented within this site, but this high of praise for Kaepernick's ability is universal among scouts involved with the draft. 

I recently spoke with and have gotten to know better Eric Galko from Optimum Scouting. A respectable and knowledgable draft expert, Eric could not help but listen in on an NFL scout talking about Colin Kaepernick. In regards to what the scout said, 
"Heard on plane back from scout that Kaepernick could go as high as 2nd round! I think Mia, Ten, Min most interested; I think he's a project."
 I usually smirk and give little credence when draft bloggers mention sources or scouts, but seeing how Eric personally was onboard a plane with the scout, I am convinced that the report is firm. To the point, if Kaepernick continues to show this kind of improvement in the NFL Combine, his stock will only go higher. The closer and closer we get to April 28th, the more possible it becomes for Colin Kaepernick to get drafted in the late first round area. 

Accuracy: 7 – In each progressive year, Colin Kaepernick improved his completion percentage, finishing the 2010 season with a 64.9 completion percentage (53% freshman year, 54% sophomore year, and 58% junior year). 

Colin K. and his delivery
Despite the awkward delivery, Kaepernick's ability to fit the ball in tight windows is often overlooked. His high throwing plane is what allows Colin to make throws over linebackers but underneath the safety. In the NFL he won't get away with forcing throws over the middle due to much more talented linebackers, however I really do feel throwing above the reach of linebackers is one of Colin Kaepernick's strong attributes as a quarterback. 

In looking over Colin Kaepernick's games this season, he flashed an ability to make solid throws outside of the numbers. He is inconsistent with his ball placement on these throws, but he does a good job of minimizing turnovers. That being said, he This ability dovetails off of Kaepernick's huge arm and the velocity he is able to put behind the football. 

The consensus concern is Kaepernick's accuracy vertical and deep down the field. Kap was never asked to throw many "go routes" because of a option run, spread attack offense. Kaepernick excelled in the short passing game, and was particularly effective throwing intermediate passes outside of the numbers. The flashes of greatness are quite evident in the big plays and highlights Colin Kaepernick put on display throughout his career. The stats do not lie about his ability to produce. The thing going forward will be his consistency in being accurate, cleaning up of technique, and making a label for himself. Is he just a "developmental project"? Or can he convince an NFL team that he can come in and compete early on? 

Throwing Mechanics/Footwork: 5 – This is the area with the most fluctuation in evaluation. You have solid junior and senior tape on Colin Kaepernick performance wise, but throwing mechanics and footwork are glaring weaknesses. Major improvement and development are musts for the kid. At the same token, as an evaluator for the draft, you have to take into consideration the work, effort, and results from Kaepernick's pre-draft workouts, senior bowl and combine which is coming up this weekend. 

When I break down Colin's throwing motion, he surprisingly gets the ball out very quickly. His non-throwing arm, the lead hand is what throws people off. He pronates his arm straight forward in an unorthodox manner, but behind that cover he rears the ball back and fires it out with great velocity. I found out that this quick delivery however came in spurts. Colin gets into trouble when he puts in a windup to his throws. This can be attributed to his former days as a baseball player (actually drafted by the Cubs in '09). Nevertheless his delivery needs work, but somehow is effective. 

Colin's release and spin of the ball is quite exceptional. His clean, tight spiral was evident in senior bowl practices. This release combined with his velocity, arm strength, and flashes of accuracy intrigue talent evaluators. The ceiling for Colin Kaepernick in the 2011 NFL Draft is as high as any quarterback available. 

Colin K., next surprise 1st rounder?
Mobility/Athleticism: 10 - In each of his final 3 seasons at Nevada, Colin Kaepernick averaged more than 7 yards per rush, compiled more than 1,100 yards rushing, and scored 16 or more touchdowns. His final year in 2010, Colin did what only 2 other modern quarterbacks have done. He, along with Tim Tebow, and Cam Newton are the only quarterbacks to throw for 20 or more touchdowns, and run for 20 or more touchdowns. The 20-20 club so to speak. 


Kaepernick's athleticism as mentioned earlier in this report, is remarkable. At 6'5 and 225 lbs, Colin Kaepernick runs like a deer; he is a long strider, and is very smooth in open space. His top end speed is what separates Colin Kaepernick; Colin is very similar to Cam Newton in that both hvae the ability to really turn on the jets after hitting the second and third levels of a defense (linebackers and safeties). On tape, you can just see his 4.5 speed as he blows by safeties and cornerbacks en route to a long touchdown run. His combine results need to provide backing for the claims that he can run a sub 4.5 40 time. 


The escapability factor, a growing trait necessary at the NFL level, is another positive to Kap's game. Particularly against Boise State in their home upset win, Colin Kaepernick was able to consistently avoid the pressure, move around comfortably inside and outside the pocket, and throw the ball accurately downfield. Any time he needed to come up with a big play, he made it. This ability to escape pressure also leads to another plus for Kap, as he is an accurate passer while on the move. His arm strength and velocity allows him to make NFL caliber throws down the sidelines and outside the numbers. 


ANALYSIS

Best fit: Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings; as mentioned before all three are interested. All three teams have strong receiving corps, and all three most definitely need starting quarterbacks. Steam will come up around April about HOW interested these teams may or may not be, and that is something I will be closely following and updating on. 

X-Factor: How will he fair at the combine, competing against top NFL Draft prospects Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, and Christian Ponder? Will he come in a more polished quarterback? Or will the stigma of being a developmental player stick with him? 



The interviewing process for Colin Kaepernick will also be a huge deciding factor in where he gets drafted. Everyone knows how good of a kid Kaepernick is, but what needs to be determined for certain is whether or not his football IQ is up to par. "Chalk talk" with NFL teams will likely be the center of interviewing for Kaepernick. 


"Chalk talk"
Playing in a Pistol offense Colin Kaepernick will be transitioning to a completely different offensive scheme at the pro level, regardless of who drafts him. His biggest problem at times, is his decision making, as he will force throws towards his primary receiver. He rarely went through difficult passer progression, so this will be a big key for teams interested in drafting Colin Kaepernick. The upside and physical attributes warrant high draft value, but the unpolished passing ability will draw concerns. Intangibles of football IQ, character, and personal drive will have to be the overriding factors for Colin Kaepernick if he expects to get drafted at the end of round 1.

Where he will be picked: Late 1st to Mid 2nd Round

Where he should be pickedEarly 2nd Round

NFL Comparison: Vince Young, QB, Texas