Week 8 thoughts

Media is focusing way too much on:

QB Brett Favre - Does anyone care about his injuries anymore? Yes it is amazing that he has played 293 games, and it will be one of those things that will be really impressive when he actually retires, and when you look back at it. The worst part is that Favre is the one that is fueling these stories. I know he is injured and I know he has a long streak, do we need to hear about it every day? Make it a story when he actually doesn't start. I don't think I have ever seen an athlete talk about himself this much before (other than maybe LeBron James) and Favre's team is 2-5.

Dallas Cowboys: Wade Phillips is terrible. They have tons of talent, but always underachieve.

This is nothing new, this is what the Cowboys have been for the last 10 years. What else is there to say? They are 1-6! Why are they still being talked about?

Media needs to focus more on:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They are 5-2, yet I do not think most football fans can name 3 players on their roster. This should be a fun team to watch for a long time. QB Josh Freeman and rookie WR Mike Williams are legit and CB Aqib Talib may be one of the best corners in the NFL and all are under 25.

Oakland Raiders: They have blown out their opponents in the last two games and are finally

showing the Raider nation a team they can be proud of. Yet the Raiders have had local TV blackouts for 11 straight games now. This is shocking considering how intimidating the fans are in Oakland. McClain said he wouldn't give an interview until the Raiders sold out a game:

"If the fans come out and we can sell out a damn game, I'll talk to the media," McClain said. "Until then ... I need full fan support." (NFL.com)

Rookies Dominating - It seems this year, more than usual, first year players have come in and really impressed. Look across almost every roster in the NFL and you will see rookies making a key impact on their teams. QB Sam Bradford, WR Mike Williams, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Devin McCorty, S Eric Berry, S Earl Thomas

Surprises and Rookie Spotlight

Three Surprises:

1. The Packers lost against the Bears- The Packers literally did everything they could to hand the game to the Bears. The Bears did do a great job stopping the run, but the Packers had 17 penalties, and played very sloppily. They could have easily had 3 or 4 interceptions against Jay Cutler, and Aaron Rodgers completed 76% of his passes for 316 yards and yet they only put up 17 points. I think this was just a bad game for the Packers, I still see them as super bowl contenders, and Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good.

2. Pittsburgh is 3-0- The Steelers have been able to win three games without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, and they have beaten some pretty good teams already: Falcons, Titans and Buccaneers. They have been able to do it because their defense has been nasty. The Steelers are one team I would not want to play at all especially with Roethlisberger coming back in 2 weeks. Look out for WR Mike Wallace, he is ridiculously fast, he averaged 19+ yards per catch last year, and is averaging 26+ per catch this season.

3. Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez playing well – Two guys that I had given up on are looking pretty good. Cutler looks better, but I think much of Cutler’s success can be contributed to the offense under Mike Martz and RB Matt Forte. Mike Martz offense’s seem to always put up good numbers, and Forte, who is the leading receiver, has helped Cutler by averaging 12.9 yards after the catch. He still seems to throw the ball off his back foot and force balls so I’m not completely sold on him. Sanchez has looked very good he is making good decisions and getting the ball out quick. Will see if he can keep it up.

Rookie Spotlight

3 Stars

Earl Thomas – Had his first 2 interceptions of his career in the Seahawks win against San Diego, looks like the next Bob Sanders (hopefully he can stay healthy though).

2 Stars

C.J. Spiller – Had a 95 yard kickoff return and a receiving touchdown, he showed that he can run by people in the chances he has been given.

1 Star

Dexter McCluster – McCluster had a big touchdown, and has helped the Chiefs start off 3-0. I was shocked when McCluster ran a 4.5+ in the 40 at the combine, he is really fast, he is one of those guys that gets faster when he puts on the pads.

Week 2: Rookie Spotlight (Rolando McClain Video)

3 Stars: RB Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

Best took the offense on his back, running the ball 17 times for 78 yards, 2 touchdowns, and also had 9 receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown. The Lions went on to lose 35-32 to the Eagles, but Best single handedly kept them in the game. Although the Lions are 0-2 they have shown a lot of promise in their first two games. As long as Best can stay healthy, (he dropped into the late round because of durability issues); I think he has a good chance of winning offensive rookie of the year honors.

2 Stars: TE Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots

On a team with WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker and other weapons, the last person you would think would be leading the team in receiving yards is rookie fourth round draft pick Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez’s has shown the ability to make people miss in the open field, taking short passes and creating big gains. He went for 100+ yards receiving last game and is averaging 20 yards per reception. Hernandez reminds me a lot of Kellen Winslow Jr., but he may be even quicker. With RB Kevin Faulk done for the year, I think Hernandez’s will become a go to receiver on third downs.

1 Star: QB Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams

Bradford has been asked to do a lot so far as rookie QB. He was drafted by the worst team in the NFL without a lot of weapons on offense other than RB Steven Jackson who has not played great to this point. Bradford has kept the Rams in both the games he has played and has attempted 80 passes already. I think many young quarterbacks in his shoes would have already been benched. He has done a great job giving his team a chance to win.

Honorable Mention: LB Rolando McClain, Oakland Raiders

McClain has not been lighting up the stat sheet but this worth talking about after this vicious hit:

Feuding Fours: C.J. Spiller and the Bills

This is a series I am beginning called "The Feuding Fours" in which I take an NFL team, pick a debatable topic, present four arguments for either side of the argument and finish with my conclusion.
Feel free to comment on any of the arguments as well as leave updates as the topics progress.
This article can also be found on Bleacher Report as a slideshow

The first Feuding Four is about whether the Bills made a smart move drafting C.J. Spiller with the 9th overall pick this year.
Spiller was an incredible talent at Clemson, known for his explosive ability and big-play tendencies.  However, some people believe the Bills could have drafted a player to fill more pressing needs.  

Good Move: The Bills' Offense

In 2009, the Bills ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring, one of the two most important statistics in football (in addition to points allowed).

The Bills desperately need help on the offensive side of the ball, and they got that by drafting the best available offensive player available, C.J. Spiller.  

The Bills were just an average team on the ground last year, ranking 16th in rushing yards with 1,867 yards.  However, the Bills only scored 6 touchdowns on the ground, the 3rd lowest number in the league.

Good Move: It's C.J. Spiller

During Spiller's first three years at Clemson he split carries with RB James Davis who is now with the Cleveland Browns.  Spiller still managed to run for 2,335 yards on just 390 carries, a 5.99 yards per carry average.  In addition, Spiller caught 87 balls for 917 yards, averaging 10.54 yards per catch.  

In 2009 Spiller was the feature back for Clemson, proving he can carry a bigger load, rushing 216 times for 1,212 yards and 12 touchdowns.  In addition, he caught 36 passes for 503 yards and four more touchdowns.

As you can see, C.J. Spiller is an explosive, versatile back that can immediately help any offense in the NFL.  

Oh, did I forget to mention he is a decent kick and punt returner, as well?

Good Move: Explosive Return Man

C.J. Spiller possesses skills that every NFL scout and general manager love to see.  He can run the ball between and outside the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield, and he is an electric return man. 

These numbers may blow your mind... In 2009, Spiller averaged 15 yards per punt return.  That is enough to make any opposing special team's coordinator gameplan for you.  He took one of his 14 punt returns to the house.  

His abilities as a kick returner are a whole 'nother story!  Last year, Spiller average 32.83 yards per kick return!! An explosive kick returner like that can change the momentum of a game at a time when his team needs it most, immediately following an opposing score.  

Oh, he also returned FOUR kickoffs for touchdowns, bringing his season touchdown total to 21.

Let's be honest, a guy with this type of big play ability is needed on every NFL roster...

Good Move: RB Injuries

Okay, this one may be a bit unfair.  

During the Bills' first preseason game, their two proven running backs, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch went down with injuries.  Jackson broke his hand and Lynch injured his ankle, and both are uncertain for week 1.

With these two out of practice for most of the rest of pre-season, drafting C.J. Spiller looks like a great move!  He will get the first team reps for three weeks or so, and be groomed as the starter in his rookie season.  

Let's assume the Bills took a defensive player (where they need help as well) instead of Spiller.  The Bills would be looking at three healthy backs, Joique Bell, Chad Simpson and Andre Anderson on their roster.  Joique Bell is an untested rookie from Wayne State, Simpson has run for 147 yards in cleanup time for the Colts in two years and Anderson is another rookie out of Tulane.

Good pick, Buffalo!

Bad Move: Bills Did Not Need a Running Back

Simply put, the Bills did not need a top-ten runningback.  They have both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson on their roster.  

A year ago, Fred Jackson ran for over 1,000 yards with an average of 4.5 yards per carry in addition to 46 catches out of the backfield.  Sure, he only scored two touchdowns, but there was not much talent around him to get the ball into the redzone.

Marshawn Lynch has twice run for 1,000 yards, in 2007 and 2008.  Last year he was a secondary option to Fred Jackson, getting just under 10 carries per game but still running for 450 yards.  

The Bills could have used help at almost every other position, including...

Bad Move: Need for Quarterback Help

Bills' starting QB Trent Edwards' career stats: 506-826, 5,498 yards, 24 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.

Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has similar numbers with a lower completion percentage, less touchdowns and more interceptions.

The Bills desperately need a franchise quarterback to get things moving in the right direction.  A 1-1 touchdown-interception ratio won't cut it as a starter in the NFL.  Maybe they didn't see good value from a quarterback at the #9 spot in this year's draft, but I would have liked to see a move made by the Bills to improve at this position.

Bad Move: Need for Wide Receiver Help

Sure, Terrell Owens had an off-year by his lofty standards, but there is no denying the Bills lost a dangerous wide receiver by letting him go.  TO led the Bills last year with 55 catches and 829 yards.

To add to that, the Bills lost their third receiver, Josh Reed, who is now a San Diego Charger.  

Looking ahead to this season, Lee Evans is back where he has been for most of his career...facing double teams with little help from other wide receivers to absorb coverage.  The Bills are currently listing Steve Johnson as the other starting WR, who has twelve catches the past two years, and Roscoe Parrish as their third WR with three catches a year ago.

Again, the Bills may not have seen the right value here at WR in the draft, but I believe Dez Bryant has top-ten ability.  Sure, he may have been viewed as a reach here, considering he was taken 24th overall, but I think he has a bright future ahead of him and could have helped the Bills for years to come. 

Bad Move: Need for Offensive Line Help

There seems to be a common trend in the "Bad Move" section.  The Bills need help at every position besides running back.  That trend continues with the offensive line...

The Bills have ranked in the bottom eight in the NFL in points scored each of the last seven years.  I believe the offensive line is the most critical component of an offense.  They are involved and relied upon heavily in the passing and running game.

In the draft, OT Anthony Davis was taken two spots after the Bills by the 49ers and G Mike Iupati was taken 17th, again by the 49ers.  

Building a solid offensive line is crucial to building a franchise...certainly more crucial than drafting a third talented running back!

Conclusion

The Bills needed a lot of help this offseason, and seemingly their biggest improvement was at a spot that needed the least help.  

On the offensive side of the ball alone the Bills could have easily upgraded at QB, WR, TE and across the offensive line, but they chose to add another RB to their crowded backfield.

Prediction:  Spiller will play a big part for the Bills and early, due to his skill set and current injuries to Jackson and Lynch.  Spiller should make a case for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Bills will likely struggle to win more than four games.

Top Rookie RBs to Target in 2010

With the offensive scheming in the NFL quickly transitioning to more of a "spread" look, and teams incorporating the idea of "running back by committee", fantasy football drafters only have four to five running backs who are "workhorse" backs any longer.

These four to five; Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Michael Turner/Frank Gore still have multiple question around all of them.

Adrian Peterson- fumbling problems and can he stay healthy like last season?

Chris Johnson- will the 358 carries take their toll on him in 2010?

Ray Rice- will Anquan Boldin's addition take away touches from him?

Maurice Jones-Drew- can he contiinue producing with a team that has absolutely no other weapons besides him?

Michael Turner- only played in basically 10 games last season, and

Frank Gore has one full healthy season in over his last 5 seasons?

All this to say that there is major uncertainty in the world of football and it is important to know that for the first time in many years, I believe there will be some serious production coming from the 2010 RB rookie draft class. Many of these running backs have already been named starters, and all except Ryan Matthews can be drafted with amazing value.

Late in drafts it will be wise to take a healthy dose of proven veterans, such as a Hines Ward- caught 90 passes again last season, but also take a chance on an explosive rookie, like Matt Forte in 2008 where he exploded onto the scene after being named the starter early in the summer. Nevertheless, strategy aside, here are some rookie running backs who will likely put up serviceable fantasy numbers in 2010.

1. Ryan Matthews: RB, San Diego Chargers

Norv Turner is quoted this offseason along the lines of saying he expects to hand the rock to LT's apparent heir, Ryan Matthews at least 300 times this 2010 season. It has been crystal clear that this offseason's agenda was to re-establish the rushing attack. A running back who has a similar skill set to that of Michael Turner, Matthews will be the new mustang which the Chargers will ride in 2010. The Chargers would not have traded up from pick 28 to pick 12 in the NFL Draft unless they saw him as their immediate starter and RB of the future. Don't expect him to catch many passes out of the backfield, however Matthews will likely share the bulk of the team's red-zone touchdowns with perennial Pro-Bowl TE Antonio Gates. It should not surprise you fantasy football fans when I say Matthews was worthy of a second round pick. The only other year in which I advocated an early draft selection to a rookie running back was when Matt Forte came into the league as the Bears lead back two years ago; sadly Forte was taken two picks before me by an owner who could not even pronounce Forte's last name...The NCAA rushing leader in 2009 is going to be heavily involved in the Chargers offense, who will be without their best vertical threat for the first 10 weeks.

Projection: 314 Rushes, 1315 Yards, 8 TDs, 15 Receptions, 230 Yards

Marginal RB1 or Solid RB2

2. Jahvid Best: RB, Detroit Lions

The Lions have been raving about this kid all offseason; the explosiveness, the top line speed, and agility are all impressive. If he is used efficiently in this coming 2010 season, we could see a star in the making. Some people note his size as a problem for him becoming a future lead back in the NFL, yet I think his size is absolutely perfect. At 5'10 200lbs he can hide behind blockers and use his explosiveness to hit the right holes. With Kevin Smith still recovering from a torn ACL, look for Best to be the best RB in the Detroit Lions backfield. This guy is a pure playmaker who will be a regular in "Sportcenter's Top Ten Plays of the Week."

Projection: 203 Rushes, 1009 Yards, 4 TDs, 34 Receptions, 420 Yards, 2 TDs

RB2 to Solid Flex option

3. C.J. Spiller: RB, Buffalo Bills

Another explosive runner, Spiller joins a very crowded backfield in Buffalo with healthy running backs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. In this particular scene I would rate the running backs on this team as such;

1. Fred Jackson

2. C.J. Spiller

3. Marshawn Lynch

Fred Jackson is the most complete back with ability running and catching the ball better than most; Spiller has the most potential, and I consider Lynch un-draftable due to his apparent lack of commitment and off-field issues. Yet Spiller is an extraordinary talent who no doubt can create running lanes for himself. Spiller is high risk/high reward, and although I feel he can outproduce all other rookie backs if he plays to his potential, I feel he will be drafted higher than he should be. Treat him as a low end RB2 or Flex player.

Projection: 185 Rushes, 834 Yards, 2 TDs, 35 Receptions, 210 Yards, 3 TDs

Marginal RB2 to Flex option

4. Ben Tate: RB, Houston Texans

Ben Tate is a big, strong, downhill running back, but not the most explosive running back.  However, he has great vision for a young ball carrier and played in a similar offense as the Texans at Auburn University. In a jumbled backfield, it seems that Tate will have a tough time getting enough touches to be an impact this season. However lets look at these sizes shall we?

Player A: 5'9 199lbs

Player B: 5'11 220lbs

Player A is Steve Slaton; productive in his rookie season, yet a non-factor last season. If Slaton's spinal injury is fully healed as he says, Tate will lose playing time considerably. Slaton is a better pass catcher than Tate is, and this offense is predicated upon the pass. However, Tate could be the workhorse back the Texans need. With a strong build at 220lbs, he can take 20 carries a game and can provide balance to a pass heavy offense that always seems behind in football games. If Tate can solidify a starting job through the pre-season, look for him to produce like Ryan Grant in Green Bay; around 250 carries, solid yardage, and a couple of touchdowns.

Projection: 225 Rushes, 918 Yards, 5 TDs, 10 Receptions, 103 Yards

Low-end RB2 to Flex option

5. Montario Hardesty: RB, Cleveland Browns

Hardesty would be much higher in my rankings, but he recently injured his knee. Hardesty was drafted by the Browns with the notion that he had fully recovered from his college knee injuries (yes, plural) to step in as the Browns lead back. This setback pushes Montario down draft boards and he could be a pleasant surprise if he makes a smooth recovery. As a mid round flyer, Hardesty can provide a team with some quality production in an offense that likely will switch to a West Coast Offensive system. Holmgren has brought in three accurate, short game passers who can move well in and out of the pocket (Delhomme, Wallace, and McCoy) and it seems very clear that they will implement a RBBC with the tandem of Harrison and Hardesty. Harrison will be the hot commodity come draft day, while Hardesty could possibly be a steal pick late in the draft. Look for him to play consistently well when he comes back from the knee injury, and also look for Hardesty to vulture most of the goal-line touchdowns away from smaller back Harrison.

Projections: 182 Rushes, 712 Yards, 8 TDs, 8 Receptions, 55 Yards

Flex Option to RB3

6. LeGarrette Blount: RB, Tennessee Titans

You guys are probably saying, "Titans? That's Chris Johnson's gig all the way man!" However Blount, who is most remembered for his Boise State sucker punch early last season, has impressed everyone in Titans camp with his hard work and improved character. At a massive 6'2 240, Blount looks like a more talented and polished LenDale White. If he can maintain the backup role under Chris Johnson, Blount could see some fill-in starts and will likely be the primary goal-line back. Look for a big touchdown total, but limited rushes and yardage.

Projections: 160 Rushes, 650 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 Receptions, 30 Yards
Handcuff RB or RB3 to RB4

Other Rookie RBs

Anthony Dixon- Apparently is having difficulties with grasping the offensive scheme and offensive coordinator has even said to reporters that he sometimes feels like "strangling" him.

Jonathan Dwyer- Has come to camp overweight, and aggravated his hamstring in his first practice. Rashard Mendenhall is the guy in Pittsburgh, don't read too much into Dwyer.

Joe Mcknight- Has potential to produce like Leon Washington did two years ago, yet LT2 is on the way. Limited touches will keep his production too low for fantasy consideration.