Welcome to The 3-4, a website dedicated to NFL analysis, predictions and recent events. We wrote 32 extensive team previews and will be writing about all things football throughout the year. We will be scouting players off game tape, evaluating them, predicting NFL and NCAA games, and much more! If you would like us to write about something in particular, let us know!
Showing posts with label Jay Cutler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jay Cutler. Show all posts

Monday, January 24, 2011

Does Jay Cutler Deserve to be Labeled a Quitter?


Never before has the football world seen anything like this. Fans, current and former players, former coaches, and analysts are all lining up to call out a player’s toughness. Publicly his teammates have shown support for Jay Cutler, but privately some teammates don’t believe Cutler did everything he could to go back out onto the field.

Chicago is a city that doesn’t let its scapegoats off very easy (See Steve Bartman). Cutler wasn’t exactly the most popular Bears player on the team before this incident, due to his high interception totals and off-putting personality, and surely now after the NFC Championship game he is the most despised. Cutler may not survive the offseason as a Chicago Bear, but is it really fair that he is receiving all this criticism?

As a lifelong Packers fan, I have seen my share of Jay Cutler. Throughout his career he has reminded me of Brett Favre without any of the leadership ability. He relies a lot on his arm strength and has a complete lack of fundamentals. His decision making ability leaves a lot to be desired, and he defiantly said after throwing 4 interceptions to DeAngelo Hall in Week 7 that he’d, “Still go after (him).” He has gotten the reputation of a jerk, which is probably part of the reason so many NFL players were quick to call out his toughness. Quite frankly Jay Cutler has a lot of traits that I would not want my starting quarterback to have, but I don’t think Cutler possesses a lack of toughness.

While most fans idolize the players who will do everything they can to play through injury, few people stop and think of what is best for the team. It’s one thing to play through an injury, but a completely other thing to be able to play well through an injury. Many analysts are comparing Jay Cutler’s situation to that of Philip Rivers’ AFC Championship game where he played on a partially torn ACL. I even listed it as the 7th toughest performance by a player this decade. However what most people forget is that Philip Rivers had a terrible game, going 19 of 37 for 211 yards and 2 interceptions with no touchdowns. Perhaps the injury really hampered Phillips’ ability and the Chargers would have been better off going with a backup.

Same thing goes for the NFC Championship game. Before coming out of the game, Cutler had gone 6 of 14 for only 80 yards and an interception. There was no indication from watching the game that Cutler was going to figure it out in time to lead the Bears to victory. It doesn’t really matter if Cutler came out of the game because of injury or ineffectiveness, because the Bears were not going to win the game the way Cutler was playing. Maybe Cutler could have stuck it out there and played through the pain like his peers would have done, but doing so likely would have been going against what’s best for the team. Bringing in 3rd string QB Caleb Hanie actually sparked the offense and gave the Bears a legitimate chance at winning the game.

Maybe if Cutler was more concerned with public perception, he would have hobbled along on the sidelines and done everything he could to look injured like a certain quarterback did this year. But that’s just not Cutler’s personality. You can blame the Bears’ loss on Cutler’s performance and I would agree, even though a terrible offensive line didn’t do him any favors. You can also admire a player’s determination to do anything he can to stay on the field and play through injury and conversely despise a player who is not willing to do so. But before people crucify Cutler, I would argue that Cutler’s rational and selfless decision to let a healthy QB play didn’t hurt the team, but ultimately gave the Bears a chance at winning. Maybe Cutler doesn’t have what it takes to be a QB in this league, but he doesn’t deserve to be given the worst label you can give to an athlete in a team sport: A Quitter.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Retrospective Look: Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton Trade

Here is a piece I wrote in the middle of the 2010 summer for my SMWW Football GM and Scouting Course. I review the trade of Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton, the context of the trade, and future possibilities.

Enjoy...
Denver Broncos give Chicago Bears Jay Cutler, and 2009 5th round draft pick 
In return

Chicago Bears give Denver Broncos Kyle Orton, 2009 and 2010 1st round draft picks, and 2009 3rd round draft pick.

After a very successful season as offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots in 2008, with fill-in QB Matt Cassel at the helm, Josh McDaniels gained national attention for his abilities as a coach. During the offseason the Denver Broncos surprisingly fired their longtime coach Mike Shanahan, and hired the young Josh McDaniels from the Patriots organization. In an effort to implement the same offense he ran at New England with Tom Brady and Matt Cassel, McDaniels needed to go out and acquire a very smart QB to run his offense. With Matt Cassel on the trade block in New England, McDaniels sought to attain Cassel due to his familiarity in previous years running the very same offense. Being the complex and intricate offensive scheme it is with multiple sets and packages, McDaniels knew that the top priority would come from a management standpoint at the quarterback position, and what better way to address this need than to get someone who already knows the offense? McDaniels however failed to make this acquisition, and immediately afterwards had to deal with a disgruntled Jay Cutler who had heard of the attempted trade. Josh McDaniels understood Cutler’s extreme talent, yet felt as if the Broncos could use a different skill set from the quarterback position. With Cutler on the move, the Broncos could now get the smart quarterback they wanted in Kyle Orton, while also adding two 1st round draft picks (2009 & 2010) and a 3rd rounder (2010).

On the flipside, the Bears desperately needed a franchise quarterback whom they could build their team around in the coming years. Due to Rex Grossman’s lack of productivity following the team’s Super Bowl loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the Bears front office decided it was time to make a move on Jay Cutler. By holding numerous draft picks, the Bears were able to acquire their franchise QB in Cutler. Bears GM Jerry Angelo’s area scout in Nashville had developed what Angelo described as a “great rapport” with Cutler. So obviously the Bears liked what they saw from Cutler early on.  Jerry Angelo went on to say of the situation, “We felt that [Cutler] is a very good person, a good leader, he had some things that happened in Denver. We recognized those, but we treated them as just speed bumps, part of the growing process. He's highly competitive, he's highly emotional. That just comes with the territory. “ The Bears got the QB they sought out by giving up a lot of draft picks and their own starting QB Kyle Orton. This trade provides extreme potential and talent to a team who has lacked in those areas at the quarterback position for the last three decades.

In retrospect a year later, I believe that both organizations have benefited from the trade. Kyle Orton has proven himself a capable leader and ran the McDaniels system very well in the 2009 NFL season; also the draft picks allowed the Broncos to upgrade the pieces around Orton. With 4 1st rounder’s in the past two drafts, the Broncos have acquired Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers, Demaryius Thomas, and Tim Tebow. All in all a very smart trade for the Broncos.

For the Bears, Season 1 of the Jay Cutler Show revealed that the team has some glaring holes and weaknesses to fill. First off Cutler needs to be groomed into making smarter decisions with the football and avoid stupid mistakes; too many forced passes that led to interceptions. Secondly, the Bears need to upgrade Cutler’s weapons in the passing game from a Wide Receiver standpoint. With the cannon that Cutler has attached to his arm, he needs a deep threat badly;  Devin Hester was the team’s leading WR receiver with a mere 757 yards and only 3 TDs. One bright spot is the TE spot which is occupied by Greg Olsen; Olsen churned out 8 TDs on 60 catches and 612 yards. A healthy Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashadu look to make more of an impact as well in 2010. Nevertheless, Jerry Angelo made a brilliant move this offseason of 2010 in bringing in offensive mastermind Mike Martz. Martz hopefully can control the testy Cutler and mold him into an elite level QB for the Chicago Bears. 

It will be interesting to see how all this will pan out in the coming season, and I want to know what you guys thought about this trade? Winner? Loser? Or good for both teams? In my opinion both organizations accomplished what they were trying to do and got the players they wanted. If Mike Martz can turn a grocer stocker named Kurt Warner into a Hall-of-Famer, and an undrafted free agent named Marc Bulger into a Pro-Bowler, it will be special to see what he can do with a blue chip prospect like Jay Cutler. This will be the most talented QB he has dealt with and I bet that Cutler will perform very well this season. 

Now let's look at what happened... 
Jay Cutler in 2010, threw his least pass attempts since his 2nd half rookie season in Denver. This was possible due to the improved running attack of Matt Forte, who rushed for over a thousand yards for the 2nd time in his 3 year NFL career. Cutler dropped his interceptions from 26 down to 16, and still kept his passing TDs above 20 (23 in 2010).  Chicago finished the season 11-5 and earned the #2 seed in the NFC. The work that Lovie Smith has done as head coach, bringing in d-coordinator Rod Marinelli and o-coordinator Mike Martz, ought to be commended. The defense now is one of the most feared in the NFL, and Martz has made incredible strides in the growth of young quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler is making less mistakes, and is learning how to efficiently attack defenses. 

Josh McDaniels had a disastrous 2010 season, filled with losses and off-field distractions, culminating in his mid season termination. The Broncos finished the season 4-12, John Elway essentially became the head of the franchise, and most recently John Fox former HC of the Carolina Panthers, was named head coach of the Denver Broncos.

Kyle Orton turned in his most productive season to date; in only 13 games he threw for 20 TDs and only gave up 9 interceptions. Although he was among the NFL leaders all season long in passing categories, a late season injury led to 3 Tim Tebow starts. An apparent change at the helm is in order for the young franchise; John Elway seems likely to stick with Tebow in 2011 as his QB, and Kyle Orton will be looking for employment elsewhere. Orton is a draft day trade possibility at this point, and there could be a long calling list for Orton's talents as he proved himself to be a more than capable quarterback in 2010.

Monday, December 20, 2010

MNF: Bears Perspective

Players to Watch:

QB Jay Cutler - The Vikings pass defense this 2010 season simply put has been "suspect". To my surprise, the Vikings are favorably ranked as the #10 best pass defense statistically in 2010, allowing just under 210 yards passing per game NFL.com. Moreover the defense has allowed only one 300 yard passer this entire season. Yet they still have managed to stumble to a 5-8 record with no real shot at the postseason. Now why is this? Well the Vikings and DE's, Jared Allen and Ray Edwards notably, have notched a miserable 23 sacks all season. Only 3 teams, the Bengals, Bucs, and Broncos have less sacks. Now to my point, Jay Cutler has been one of the most sacked man in the NFL (the Bears leading the NFL in sacks allowed with 47 this season alone). Something has got to give, and if the Bears want to get back on track, they will need to protect Jay Cutler.

RBs Chester Taylor and Matt Forte - Although afore mentioned protection of Jay Cutler will be necessary, due to the weather conditions, it is imperative that the Bears get the ground game up and running. One of only 9 teams averaging less than 100 yards on the ground, the Bears must keep the Vikings defense honest. In all reality, Martz should plan on at around 30 touches to Matt Forte and somewhere around 15 touches for Chester taylor.

DE Julius Peppers - Upgraded to questionable, the Ironman himself, Brett Favre, may have an opportunity to start versus "Da Bears". That being said, I can bet that Peppers is licking his chops. One of the most dominant down lineman this season, Peppers has tallied 8 sacks and ranks inside the top 20 in the NFL in sacks. If Peppers can really get after the QB and get a lot of hits on Favre/whichever QB is playing, the Bears will be in a great position to win the football game.

Key Matchup: Vikings QBs versus the Bears Pass Defense - Surprising as it may sound, I will talk about passing here. Last week Chicago had Tom Brady and the Patriots come into town in similar weather as tonight, and were absolutely torched through the air (as well as the ground). Nevertheless this week involves the Bears being the visitors to a homeless Vikings squad. Whichever QB comes out and starts tonight will need to be on top of their game versus a Bears secondary that allows just 225 ypg and has 16 interceptions on the year. ( UPDATE I just received a text update saying that will be Brett Favre, and Adrian Peterson is out, meaning Toby Gerhart will start. Gerhart will likely be counted upon to shoulder the load, however Brett Favre will need to be careful with the football and play mistake-free football.) 

Why the Bears Will Win - The Vikings have found ways to lose this season, and the Bears simply have found ways to win. The Bears have won 5 games by 5 or less points, and the Vikings have lost 5 games by 10 points or less this season. They Bears will be storming out of the gate after last week's utter disappointment on the national stage against the Pats. 

Prediction: Bears 31 - 27 Vikings 

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Surprises and Rookie Spotlight


Three Surprises:

1. The Packers lost against the Bears- The Packers literally did everything they could to hand the game to the Bears. The Bears did do a great job stopping the run, but the Packers had 17 penalties, and played very sloppily. They could have easily had 3 or 4 interceptions against Jay Cutler, and Aaron Rodgers completed 76% of his passes for 316 yards and yet they only put up 17 points. I think this was just a bad game for the Packers, I still see them as super bowl contenders, and Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good.

2. Pittsburgh is 3-0- The Steelers have been able to win three games without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, and they have beaten some pretty good teams already: Falcons, Titans and Buccaneers. They have been able to do it because their defense has been nasty. The Steelers are one team I would not want to play at all especially with Roethlisberger coming back in 2 weeks. Look out for WR Mike Wallace, he is ridiculously fast, he averaged 19+ yards per catch last year, and is averaging 26+ per catch this season.

3. Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez playing well – Two guys that I had given up on are looking pretty good. Cutler looks better, but I think much of Cutler’s success can be contributed to the offense under Mike Martz and RB Matt Forte. Mike Martz offense’s seem to always put up good numbers, and Forte, who is the leading receiver, has helped Cutler by averaging 12.9 yards after the catch. He still seems to throw the ball off his back foot and force balls so I’m not completely sold on him. Sanchez has looked very good he is making good decisions and getting the ball out quick. Will see if he can keep it up.


Rookie Spotlight

3 Stars

Earl Thomas – Had his first 2 interceptions of his career in the Seahawks win against San Diego, looks like the next Bob Sanders (hopefully he can stay healthy though).

2 Stars

C.J. Spiller – Had a 95 yard kickoff return and a receiving touchdown, he showed that he can run by people in the chances he has been given.

1 Star

Dexter McCluster – McCluster had a big touchdown, and has helped the Chiefs start off 3-0. I was shocked when McCluster ran a 4.5+ in the 40 at the combine, he is really fast, he is one of those guys that gets faster when he puts on the pads.